Sudden -20% DNUT swing, stay classy Krispy

Krispy Kreme clearly had a wildly bad 2025. Finishing the year -60% or so, and at one point down 75-80% Balance sheet issues, secular GLP trend, poor management and zero cost disciplines led to about $850M in debt, flat revenues YOY, and bleak outlook. There is a short interest of about 13%, or 27% of total float … and occasionally gets tested in this day & age. However around July the story changed: \\- dividend cut (saves $20M per Q) \\- cost cuts related to poor $mcd partnership \\- outsourced awful fleet of trucks & costs there (halfway done) \\- new COO whos a NZ baller and also plump \\- going asset light akin to a $YUM or $MCD model of refranchising \\- closing grocery & leaning on $cost $tgt $wmt \\- Giant new store in MN, strategic non cannabilizing sales… $1M in first 17 days By last Q ended 10/31 \\- we had positive FCF of $15M (wtf .. havent seen positive in like 2 yrs) \\- cutting the debt by refranchising (i.e. Japan $65M) nice royalty expected and super asset light \\- plan is working Summary: \\- $60M in debt payments per year is nuts still, this doesnt deserve any premium multiple on FCF \\- \\\~$60-75M in FCF this year, however DOES does deserve a minimum multiple of 10x, as the growth of FCF would be astronomic \\- A few more large refranchising deals later, and they can slice a serious chunk of debt down to $6-700M, assuming they just hold revenues flat, and FCF would grow even more… \\- At $3.5 a share, or sub $600M market cap, the expectations are that they will fail quickly. Even just basic execution, and the 10x multiple on FCF will begin to draw attention especially if they can show 1-2 more positive quarters Target $6-8 by April/May \\-20% in a week on no news is classic Krispy Not investment advice \\- No Doctor