Came across this framework for reading clinical trial "body language" before results drop. The idea is that administrative metadata on ClinicalTrials.gov reveals sponsor confidence levels, and there are 4 distinct failure patterns:
1. Panic Expanders: Sudden aggressive recruitment. Adding sites. Inflating sample size. Basically: the data isn't hitting and they're hoping more patients will save it.
2. Drifters:Timelines quietly slip. Completion dates push right. No explanation. The "we're not panicking but we're definitely not confident" signal.
3. Contractors: The opposite, shrinking the trial. Fewer sites. Smaller population. Often means they've seen enough to know it's over.
4. Zombies: No updates for months. No recruitment. No changes. Technically "active" but nobody's home.
Has anyone here backtested anything like this? Curious if there's alpha here or if it's already arbitraged out.
Found it here: https://www.appliedxl.com/book/archetypes