Post presents long theses on two undervalued gold miners, AltynGold and Jaguar Mining, based on low valuation multiples, production growth/expansion, and exploration upside.
ALTN.L — LONG The author argues AltynGold is deeply undervalued, trading at ~8x forward P/E versus a 15x UK-listed miner average and below 2x forward free cash flow, with analysts projecting 62%+ upside over the next three months and 50–100% targets. The stated catalysts are H1 2025 gold production up 44% y/y, EBITDA up 125% to $44 million, 60% targeted production growth in 2026, EBIT margins expanding from 33% to 50%, and low AISC. The Teren-Sai exploration project could extend mine life beyond 15 years, and debt reduction would lower financial risk. The author cites low visibility and leverage to gold prices, with low AISC as a buffer against volatility.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio around 8x, significantly below the industry average of 15x for UK-listed miners. It's also trading at less than 2x forward free cash flow (FCF), making it one of the cheapest gold producers on a cash-generation basis.
JAG.TO — LONG The author argues Jaguar Mining is deeply undervalued, trading at 4–5x EBITDA versus comparable miners at 8–10x, a discount attributed to its mid-tier status and Brazil exposure, with analysts seeing a high-conviction buy and 100%+ gains as production ramps. The stated catalyst is a plan to triple gold production over five years via optimizations at Turmalina, Pilar, and Roça Grande plus new developments, with a new CEO with mine development expertise accelerating this and potentially lowering AISC further. A five-year exploration plan targets 4–7 million ounces of total gold endowment, including Chamé at 325,000–520,000 oz and other areas at 134,000–400,000 oz, with drilling starting in 2025 that could add decades to mine life. The main stated valuation risk is its mid-tier status and Brazil exposure.
Jaguar trades at a steep discount to comparable miners, often at 4–5x EBITDA versus the sector's 8–10x. This gap stems from its mid-tier status and Brazil exposure, but improving metrics (like declining costs and rising EBITDA) could trigger a re-rating.