after replaying data from \~**1.3M Polymarket wallets** last week, something clicked.
copying one “smart” trader is fragile. even the best ones drift.
so i stopped following individuals and started building **wallet baskets by topic**.
example: a geopolitics basket
→ only wallets older than 6 months
→ no bots (filtered out wallets doing thousands of micro-trades)
→ recent win rate weighted more than all-time (last 7 days and last 30 days)
→ ranked by avg entry vs final price
→ ignoring copycat clusters
then the signal logic is simple:
→ wait until **80%+ of the basket** enters the same outcome
→ check they’re all buying within a tight price band
→ only trigger if spread isn’t cooked yet
→ right now i’m paper-trading this to avoid bias
it feels way less like tailing a personality
and way more like trading agreement forming in real time.
i already built a small MVP for this and i’m testing it quietly.
if anyone wants more info or wants to see how the MVP looks, leave a comment and i’ll dm !