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I ran a 10-year FCFF DCF on Netflix using a fairly conservative base case, then bridged EV to equity value. Here are the results:
Key assumptions
Revenue
2026 growth: 16%
2027- 2030: decelerating 14.5% -> 10.0%
2031- 2035: fade to 3.5%
Terminal growth : 2.5%
Margins
Starting EBIT margin 27%, expands to 35% by Year 10 (ads mix, operating leverage, lower content intensity)
Reinvestment
Capex: 2.0% of revenue with 1.5% terminal
Working capital: modest negative “float” early, fading to neutral
Tax
Low cash taxes early (NOL/timing), normalising to 25% in later years.
Discount rate
WACC: 9.1% (Ke 9.28%, Kd 5% pre-tax, 96/4 equity/debt).
Valuation outputs
Terminal value
Perpetuity method:
TV = FCFF11 / (WACC - g)
FCFF10 = 37,924m
FCFF11 = 37,294m x 1.025 = 38,872m
TV = 38,872 / (0.091 - 0.025) = 588,970 (i.e. $589B, undiscounted at Year 10).
Discounted to present:
PV(TV) = $246,516m
Present value of explicit period
PV(FCFF Years 1–10) = $163,494m
Enterprise value
EV = 163,494 + 246,516 = $410,010m
Equity value bridge
\+ Cash & cash equivalents: $9.3B (Sept 30, 2025)
– Total debt: $14.5B
Equity value = $404,810m
Per-share intrinsic value
Using \~4.24B shares outstanding (split-adjusted):
Intrinsic value = $95.5, rounded to $96/share
Margin of safety at current price is 8%.
My "undervalued" threshold is 15%+ MoS, so this result is fairly valued / slight discount.
Basically, Netflix is currently a wonderful company at a fair price. I'll be looking to buy <$80. Not an advice.
What do you guys think of the analysis?