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I would love some feedback on my portfolio and attempt dial in my AA and rebalance. I'm a 45 yo in a low-medium col, max my hsa, and 401k each year, typically save another $45k or so on top, and in 24% bracket, expenses around $50-60k a year. I think my fire number is around 1.4-1.5M and I'm around 960 portfolio now. Both the industry I work for and my profession are pretty rough right now and a layoff is possible between 0-2 years and it being very difficult to get a job in my profession again for a while so I want to have runway to figure that out even if I'm not going to hit the fire number.
I've not done much in the way of rebalancing to date unfortunately. I was holding a TDF as a "safe" position in RO/Roth but otherwise keeping some cash for emergencies and otherwise working with a VTI and chill philosophy mostly. That led to about 85% stock balance and running sims it feels like with the risks on my horizon keeping it that high is a lot more risk than potential gain so I'm trying to figure out what to reduce that to and where.
Here's where my first attempt at fixing it landed me:
10k CDs
40k I Bonds
325k taxable - 47k SPAXX, 275k VTI, 4k VEU
330k 401k - 170k total US, 100k ex-us total market, 60k fixed income
120k R/O IRA - 100k VGIT, 14k VTI, 8k VXUS
77k Roth - 54k VTI, 23k VXUS
45k HSA - VTI
This is about 72% stock (14% international) and 20% bonds. That's also about 2 years expenses or a little less between the CDs/ibonds/spaxx.
I think I have too much spaxx, it's earning great (relatively) now but the pressure to lower rates is clear. I know conventional wisdom is that holding bonds in taxable is inefficient but in my case I think it makes sense as this could be the first few years of fire funding. I like the ease of VGIT but understand it may not be ideal for sorr protection. Should I be trading spaxx for vusxx/vbil/vgus? I don't understand t-bills yet but maybe its time.
The international portion of taxable is trivial at this time. Future equity purchases would probably be that, but how about future taxable investments in general? I'm worried about not having enough invested here to grow, but it also seems like I need to start socking away more short-term funds. What should be bought with that 50k a year?
Finally, I question the bond allocation in general. The roll over is nearly 100% bonds and I have concerns if I'll get enough growth there to do roth conversions that I imagine I'll need. The stable value fund in the 401k is because of poor bond choices, it seems less preferable to VGIT hence the heavy allocation in the RO. I'm wonder if I shouldn't reduce the stable value fund holdings here, especially if future taxable contributions go to short term.