Been digging deeper into SELLAS and wanted to get some grounded perspectives from others following the story.
REGAL (Phase 3, GPS in AML CR2) is an event-driven OS study with final analysis at 80 events. Company last disclosed \~72 events as of December, so we’re clearly approaching the endgame.
What I find constructively bullish (but not conclusive):
• No stop for futility or safety
• Event accumulation looks steady, not chaotic
• OS in AML CR2 is unforgiving → events will happen, question is timing
• No obvious red flags in company updates
At the same time, trying to stay realistic:
• Event 80 ≠ results
• Delay ≠ guaranteed efficacy
• OS endpoints are binary and brutal
Curious how others are thinking about:
1) Timing
When do you realistically expect Event 80?
• Faster case: spring 2026
• Base case: summer 2026
• Slower?
2) Readout scenarios
How do you handicap:
• Fail / borderline / clear success
• And what each scenario implies for valuation short- and mid-term?
3) Buyout / partnership optionality (realistically)
Not talking $10–15B moon numbers — but:
• Does a clear Phase 3 OS win put SELLAS on strategic radars?
• More likely path: partnership first vs outright buyout?
• If buyout were to happen post-readout, what range feels realistic to you and why?
4) Trading into Event 80
Do you expect:
• Gradual anticipation bid?
• Mostly range-bound until data?
• Or volatility without direction?
Not here for squeeze talk or guarantees — genuinely interested in how others frame risk vs reward and strategic outcomes at this stage.
Appreciate thoughtful input, especially from those with AML, clinical trial, or biotech M&A experience.