$SATS - SpaceX Proxy that is still wildly undervalued

I went down a deep rabbit hole on the financials of SpaceX, Falcon 9, Starship, and Starlink and while doing so realized that there is a huge play on EchoStar (SATS). Two things that showed up as roadblocks for starlink were that Falcon 9 cannot build the full constellation they need and that they didn’t have a large enough frequency spectrum to service enough customers for it to be highly profitable (The problems both intelsat and EchoStar hit was cost increased as satellites increased, but at a rate beyond the ability or willingness of new customers to pay (ie too expensive, only rich customers): **Key Takeaways from Starlink cost charting:** * 30k satellites = \~20 atmospheric re-entries per day * Falcon requires \~1 launch per day just for replacement (Current falcon 9 launch cadence is once every 3 days for all customers) * Starship needs \~1 launch per week for replacement * Starship cuts replacement cost by \~67% * Falcon pricing floor ≈ $8/month * Starship pricing floor ≈ $3/month * At scale, Starship enables global $1–$3/month internet and still turns billions in profit * Starlink currently charges customers $40-$120 per month (at various data rate packages) * Starlink is tracking to \~80 million customers by 2030 * Starlink Profits balloon at scale The frequency spectrum problem they solved with the EchoStar deal, SpaceX lacked enough free cash flow so they traded equity, and this is where it get juicy. They traded equity at a discount and EchoStar undervalued it on their books. **What we know:** 1. August 26 2025; AT&T Bought a chunk of spectrum for 23 billion in cash (cleared debt) 2. Sept 8 2025; EchoStar sold spectrum to SpaceX on ($17B)+Nov 2025 ($2.6B add-on). 3. Total consideration ≈ $19.6B, split between cash + SpaceX stock, SpaceX is paying 2 years of EchoStar's debt interest (up to 2 billion), and starlink access for boost mobile 4. Public reporting implies \~$11–12B of SpaceX equity received at the time. 5. At deal negotiation time, private SpaceX stock was trading around $200-212/share, implying a \~$350-400B valuation. (Likely Echostar got the shares at a discount) 6. December 2025 secondary trades reportedly price SpaceX around $424/share, implying \~$800B valuation. **What % of SpaceX could EchoStar own?** * $11–12B / $400B ≈ \~3% ownership * If valuation was higher, stake could be lower (1.5-3% range) * If valuation was lower, stake could be higher (3-4% range) (Google owns 8% BTW) * 3% is likely based on lower-end private valuations at the time and that SpaceX was desperate to buy before AT&T or Amazon bought it. (There was a bidding war, and AT&T paid 23 billion in cash for the part they were able to buy) * This post assumes 3% **SpaceX stake value today (at $800B):** * $800B × 3% = $24B * EchoStar shares outstanding ≈ 250M * SpaceX stake alone = \~$96 per SATS share **Non-SpaceX value of EchoStar (conservative):** * Net cash after debt paydown * Remaining spectrum * Hughes + gov/enterprise ops * (Boost Mobile treated very conservatively) *This comes out to about $100–110 per share without SpaceX.* **Total EchoStar valuation (sum-of-the-parts):** * Non-SpaceX value: $100–110 * SpaceX (3% @ $800B): +$96 * Total fair value ≈ $195–205 per share **Hidden NAV issue (important):** * EchoStar still carries SpaceX stock near deal cost * GAAP does NOT require re-marking just because private prices moved * That means roughly $12B (\~$48/share) of value is economically real but not on the * balance sheet * This kind of “hidden NAV” often doesn’t get priced until: * IPO * Tender offer * Explicit disclosure * Analysts force NAV math into models **Downside?** Even stacking bad outcomes (Boost fails, spectrum reprices, SpaceX stays private), asset value math still points to a hard floor of $155 because: * Net cash * Real spectrum * Real equity stake * sellable assets ***Too Long; Didn't Read, you degenerate bastard:*** If EchoStar truly owns \~3% of SpaceX and SpaceX is worth $800B, then: * SpaceX stake ≈ $96/share * Total EchoStar NAV ≈ $195–205/share * Large gap vs GAAP book value due to private equity accounting * Stock trades like a telecom, but increasingly behaves like a holding company with embedded SpaceX exposure Now when SpaceX IPOs… the story changes even more. Depending on the SpaceX IPO valuations Echostar's fair value stock price moves a lot: *Processing img boapku8isxcg1...* Even my worst case assessment shows a per share floor of $155 if SpaceX doesn't IPO. My positions, leaps 150C Jan 2027. Super conservative with plenty of time and upside. By the time retail can buy SpaceX shares after the IPO they will have already gone parabolic because of ETFs, mutual funds, etc getting to buy before you can. BTW, SpaceX should IPO early this year. This deal shows that they need more working capital to move starship into mass production. Its an Elon company so I expect a high valuation regardless of any realities. AI was used to condense this, but I've verified all the numbers and had others double check.