23M going 100% bonds for 2026. Rate my setup

u/balancer777 · Reddit — r/smallstreetbets · January 16, 2026 at 13:00 · 💬 2 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Original Reddit post

Author is going 100% bonds for 2026, betting on ECB and Fed rate cuts and using CHF as a safe haven, expecting a probable recession.

IS0L.DE — LONG The author is allocating 30% to iShares EUR Govt Bond 15-30yr, betting on ECB rate cuts as recession indicators suggest a downturn around 2026. The thesis is that long-duration euro government bonds will benefit from falling rates while protecting capital in a risk-off environment. The author explicitly avoids stocks and gold, citing gold's all-time highs and potential liquidity-driven dump risk.

30% iShares EUR Govt Bond 15-30yr (Betting on ECB rate cuts)

IDTL.L — LONG The author allocates 20% to iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr, betting on Fed rate cuts as part of a full defense-mode portfolio for 2026. The rationale is that a probable recession will force the Fed to cut rates, benefiting long-duration US Treasuries. This is part of a broader capital protection strategy with no stock exposure.

20% iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr (Betting on Fed rate cuts)

S0SG.DE — LONG The author allocates 30% to iShares Swiss Govt Bond 0-3yr, using CHF as a safe haven within a defensive 2026 portfolio. The thesis is that short-duration Swiss government bonds provide capital protection and currency safety during a probable recession. This complements bets on ECB and Fed rate cuts.

30% iShares Swiss Govt Bond 0-3yr (Using CHF as a safe haven)

S0SG.DE — LONG The author allocates 20% to iShares Germany Govt Bond 0-1yr as a cash pile in Euros, part of a full defense-mode portfolio for 2026. The rationale is capital preservation in short-duration German government bonds while waiting out a probable recession. This is the most conservative sleeve of the allocation.

20% iShares Germany Govt Bond 0-1yr (My cash pile in Euros)

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u/balancer777 Reddit r/smallstreetbets
Long EUR govt bonds on ECB rate cut bet
The author is allocating 30% to iShares EUR Govt Bond 15-30yr, betting on ECB rate cuts as recession indicators suggest a downturn around 2026. The thesis is that long-duration euro government bonds will benefit from falling rates while protecting capital in a risk-off environment. The author explicitly avoids stocks and gold, citing gold's all-time highs and potential liquidity-driven dump risk.
u/balancer777 Reddit r/smallstreetbets
Long US Treasuries on Fed rate cut bet
The author allocates 20% to iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr, betting on Fed rate cuts as part of a full defense-mode portfolio for 2026. The rationale is that a probable recession will force the Fed to cut rates, benefiting long-duration US Treasuries. This is part of a broader capital protection strategy with no stock exposure.
u/balancer777 Reddit r/smallstreetbets
Long Swiss short bonds as CHF safe haven
The author allocates 20% to iShares Germany Govt Bond 0-1yr as a cash pile in Euros, part of a full defense-mode portfolio for 2026. The rationale is capital preservation in short-duration German government bonds while waiting out a probable recession. This is the most conservative sleeve of the allocation.
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This Reddit post, published January 16, 2026, features u/balancer777 discussing IS0L.DE, IDTL.L, S0SG.DE. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/balancer777  · Tickers: IS0L.DE, IDTL.L, S0SG.DE