While reviewing MSTR option flow on January 15, I noticed large dollar premium traded in puts with very short maturity (mostly expiring 2026-01-16, DTE = 2). All of these trades are deep in the money (strikes roughly 235-380 with spot around 171). The options are almost entirely intrinsic value, and V/OI is elevated.
https://preview.redd.it/ob8bl22lcodg1.png?width=2378&format=png&auto=webp&s=e602f6335a050deffe389e4ee217d60e6a25b3ba
I’m trying to understand how to correctly interpret this type of flow:
* Does it make sense to view this as directional bearish risk, or is dollar premium largely uninformative when options are this deep ITM?
* How likely is it that these are technical transactions (rolls, stock hedges, exercise/assignment management)?
* Is there any practical value in looking at dealer positioning or gamma in trades like these?
I’d be interested to hear what additional signals you typically look at to infer the motivation behind prints like this.
Any thoughts or real-world examples would be appreciated.