Will there be an AI bubble peak? Yes. Every breakthrough technology has had over investment.
Has AI bubble peaked? If you keep reading mainstream media and listening to Michael Burry, you'd believe it.
You'd be losing a lot of money though.
**Real demand is through the roof:**
* H100 prices recovering to highest in 8 months. This is a clear indicator that Burry's claim that old GPUs become useless faster than expected is wrong. Source mvcinvesting @ X. Can't post link here due to X being banned.
* China's Alibaba Justin Lin just said they're severely constrained by inference demand. He said Tencent is the same. They simply do not have compute to meet demand. They're having to use their precious compute for inference which does not leave enough to train new models to keep up with Americans. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/china-ai-leaders-warn-of-widening-gap-with-us-after-1b-ipo-week
* Google says they need to double compute every 6 months to meet demand. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/google-must-double-ai-serving-capacity-every-6-months-to-meet-demand.html
Listen to people actually are close to AI demand. They're all saying they're compute constrained. Literally everyone does not have enough compute. Every software developer has experienced unreliable inference when using Anthropic's Claude models because Anthropic simply does not have enough compute to meet demand.
**So why is demand increasing?**
* Because to contrary to popular belief on Reddit, AI is tremendously useful even at the current intelligence level. Every large company I know is building agents to increase productivity and efficiency. Every small company I know is using some form of AI whether it's ChatGPT or video gen.
* Models are getting smarter faster. In the last 6 months, GPT5, Gemini 3, and Claude 4.5 have increased capabilities faster than expected. The graph is now exponential. Source 1: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks Source 2: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard
* LLMs aren't just chat bots anymore. They're trading stocks, doing automated analysis, writing apps from scratch. The token usage has exploded.
At some point, the AI bubble will peak. Anyone who thought it peaked in 2025 is seriously going to regret it.
Railroad bubble in the US peaked at 6% of GDP spend. AI is at 1% right now. I'd argue that AI is more important than railroads.