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Company Financials
$ORIS is a Chinese tea company that has 12 farms of about 2,000 acres and 69 employees. ORIS has consistent positive profit and positive net income, although revenue and profitability have been on a downward trend. They have NO debt. ORIS came into its October 2024 IPO with about $35 million in cash. Their cash has increased since then to about $50 million, in part due to their positive net business gains and also their July 2025 stock issuance.
Acquisitions
ORIS is pursuing both horizontal and vertical integration, likely influenced by their decreasing revenues and large cash holdings. There are 4 letters of intent, including one just announced January 9, 2026:
1) [Daohe](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/28/3122456/0/en/Oriental-Rise-Holding-Limited-Signs-Non-Binding-Letter-of-Intent-to-Acquire-Daohe-and-Minji.html)
2) [Minji](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/28/3122456/0/en/Oriental-Rise-Holding-Limited-Signs-Non-Binding-Letter-of-Intent-to-Acquire-Daohe-and-Minji.html)
3) [Hubei Daguan Tea](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/30/3211607/0/en/oriental-rise-holding-limited-signs-non-binding-letter-of-intent-to-acquire-hubei-daguan-tea-industry-group.html)
4) [PoDu White Tea](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/09/3216121/0/en/oriental-rise-holdings-limited-signs-non-binding-letter-of-intent-to-acquire-podu-white-tea-beverage-brand-and-related-assets.html)
Price History
ORIS had an IPO in October 2024. About 2 million shares were issued at a price of $4, and founders were given 20 million shares, [according to the prospectus.](chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https:/ir.mdhtea.cn/pdfcontent/cik/1964664/id/3b6429cc-6b95-4aaf-9905-2d5939497118/file/ea0217860-424b4_oriental.htm/to/000121390024088565_ea0217860-424b4_oriental.pdf) The price doubled in November 2024, and on December 5, 2024, a massive pump saw the price jump from $10 to nearly $60 by day close. The next day saw the price plummet to $3 and steadily drop to $1 by mid-2025. There is no indication in SEC filings that any dilution occurred.
The next major price movement occurred in June 2025 when a major dilutive event was announced: [the issuance of 14.8 million shares and warrants with cashless exercise and a maximum of 60 million new shares.](chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https:/ir.mdhtea.cn/pdfcontent/cik/1964664/id/a40937b5-55ce-4bfb-8d1e-9a92c21d5709/file/ea0249894-424b4_oriental.htm/to/000121390025066812_ea0249894-424b4_oriental.pdf) The price dropped in half to about 50 cents, and upon closure of the offering in July, the price dropped another two-thirds to about 15 cents.
They became noncompliant with the $1 Nasdaq minimum bid requirement, and they announced on December 18, 2025 a 20:1 RS that went into effect on December 29, 2025. The price at RS was 6 cents. The price now sits at about that price post-RS, around $1.20, which is about 0.1% of its all time post-RS high of $1,120 on December 5, 2024.
Dilution
After the IPO there was 22 million shares (20 million insiders, 2 million float). Share count stayed that way until the July 2025 share and warrant issuance. Recall this immediately created 15 million shares and up to 60 million with cashless warrant exercise. However, ORIS has not released any updates on the outstanding share count since prior to the July 2025 issuance. So, [Dilution Tracker](https://dilutiontracker.com/app/search/ORIS) has only included the minimum additional shares in their estimate of 1.84 million shares outstanding post-RS (1.84-1.1)\*20 = 14.8 million. But there is potentially up to 1.1 + (4\*.74) = 4.06 million shares. Of these post-RS shares, 1 million are with founders from the IPO when they were given 20 million shares. This would put the founders in a minority voting position, which is why [they gifted themselves 500 million Founder Preferred shares that are non-convertible, non-redeemable and non-transferrable](chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https:/ir.mdhtea.cn/pdfcontent/cik/1964664/id/15366510-8638-4e57-aaa1-8aa1f2e4f493/file/ea0259325-6k_oriental.htm/to/000121390025093308_ea0259325-6k_oriental.pdf) (can’t enter the public float), with the sole purpose of restoring voting control to the founders with no dilutive effect.
So how many warrants were executed and how many shares were created? I believe the incentives of the warrant redemption and their choice of RS ratio gives a very strong indication that nearly all of the warrants were executed pre-RS. The incentives are such that warrants should have been redeemed cashless and immediately due to the downward pricing effect of the dilutive announcement. But the real clue is their choice of a 20:1 RS ratio that barely gets them above the $1 minimum bid. If there were many more warrants left to be exercised post-RS, this would push the price below $1 and risk immediate delisting because they cannot conduct another RS within the year to gain compliance. They would have chosen a much higher ratio if many warrants remained to be redeemed to absorb the price impact of the expected dilution. The choice of 20:1 gives them the opportunity to do another RS of up to 12:1 sometime between January 2027 and 2028 while still complying with the Nasdaq 250:1 cumulative RS maximum over 2 years.
I believe ORIS is clearly signaling that they want to maintain access to Nasdaq capital markets. That means they are going to defend the $1 price minimum to avoid delisting (they have cash for a buyback if needed), so $1 should be viewed as a price floor. I believe the outstanding share count is about 4 million with nearly all warrants exercised. Dilution within the next year (especially with the price anywhere near $1) could cause another investor panic and price plummet, resulting in potential delisting. Therefore I believe dilution in the next year is almost certainly not going to occur unless the price rises several times its current level. There is no active ATM agreement, nor have they ever had one.
Conclusion
With 4 million shares outstanding and a price of around $1.50, the market cap is about $6 million. Their cash alone is nearly 10 times that amount, and with small but positive net income, market cap should be at least the cash value. Their LOIs suggest the market cap should be even higher. If dilution does not occur, that implies a pure value-based 10x from current pricing. Additional non-value-based latent upward price pressure due to low float, it being highly shorted, and it is a Chinese stock and therefore susceptible to pumps. It already pumped 6x in one day in December 2024 at a higher market cap ($200 million) and float-only cap ($20 million) before the morning of the pump than it is now of $6 million and $4.5 million respectively.
TL/DR:
12 farms and 69 employees – real production
Consistent net positive income
$50 million cash
NO debt
4 planned acquisitions
Minimal dilution risk due to delisting concern and completed warrant exercise
4 million shares (3 million float) imply a $6 million market cap
Cash value alone implies a $50 million market cap, a 10x return from current pricing
Today is the 10^(th) day since the reverse split, so they have regained compliance with the $1 minimum. Expect an official release confirming this later this week, that itself could cause a little price bump. I’m in with 75k shares.