I was estimating President Trump's portfolios by parsing his financial disclosure documents (OGE Form 278e) from 2016 to 2025.
I extracted stocks and bonds of public companies. I noticed that if his bonds were stocks, it yields +23.9% (SP500: +16.1%). While this isn't some strong overperformance, maybe we could use it as a confirmation signal?
I want to combine it with a strategy based on politicians' facial expressions (See paper ["Association of intensity and dominance of CEOs’ smiles with corporate performance"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-63956-2)).
Of course it comes with a huge caveat that financial disclosures are published once a year, and Trump is mainly a real estate guy. His stock portfolio is relatively small given he has $7.3B.
For those asking: Yes, Pelosi outperforms Trump +32% vs. +14%. But she's retiring this year.
Happy to hear your opinions. Especially if it doesn't make sense at all - would love to pivot away quickly.