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There are many true things commonly said on this sub said about gold and the biggest one is irrelevant: "Warren Buffet says gold has no yield so it's not an investment."
Duh. Of course it has no yield. Of course it isn't an investment. JP Morgan famously said, "Gold is money, everything else is credit." So the question as to whether to hold gold or not isn't about how much of your net worth to invest in gold vs stocks. It's about how much of your net worth you want in gold vs the US dollar system. Despite what some people may have you believe, cash is NOT trash. Dollars give you optionality. Any experienced trader will tell you that cash is also a position. Value investors would do well to take a page out of that notebook. It's not about timing the market either. That optionality that holding cash brings is about letting the market come to you. I hoard cash when I see nothing I want to put new money into. I put that cash to work when opportunity presents itself. With gold, you can do the exact same thing, except with a little more friction and inconvenience. However, what other alternatives do you have? Yuan? Pesos? CAD? AUD?
ore grades: Did you know that gold miners are mining gold dust right now? That out of one ton of rock, if you have above 1 ounce of gold, that that is considered good? There has been a large ore grade decline across the mining of almost all metals, and that is because we have already mined all of the easy stuff. Gold should revalue upwards over time, and it does so in spurts. It was unprofitable to mine gold at $2k/oz at many mines, so a revaluation was overdue.
Yields: If you consider gold to be a form of money that has no yield, you have to consider forms of money WITH yield and compare them as an alternative. Stop what you're doing. Go to one of your open tabs and pull up the chart of the ten year yield. Then look at the chart of the thirty year yield. Look at the chart of the spread between the 2 and the 10. The yield curve wants to uninvert but yields want to go up. I'm not going to go into that too in depth, but I struggle to see how that isn't mega bullish metals. As for yields themselves, they are going up because sovereigns and central banks are hoarding gold and letting their US treasuries roll off their balance sheet. Do you really think that if Trump resigned tomorrow, that China would go out there and buy more bonds? Don't forget that while Trump 2.0 has made new aggressive moves, there is little that Biden did towards China that Trump 1.0 didn't do. The divorce between China and America is a bipartisan stance, not just a single madman steering the bus.
Charts: It's a 50 year cup and handle. On a logarithmic scale, I think the target could be $8k or $10k on a conservative basis. I'll admit that charts aren't everything, but massive moves like that have happened before. Look up the London gold pool and review what happened in the 1970s, which was a real gold bull market. 50 year patterns just don't breakout and resolve themselves over two years. That's silly.
relative valuation: a comparison of the gold/DJI ratio shows that gold still has a ways to go to reach peak levels. I think the dow is the index to use because it has history
Cycles: look at the commodities to S&P ratio and you will see that commodities are still just barely coming out of the bottom of a deep trough. Long way to go in the current resource bull market. Resource bull market cycles have gold go up. Real estate cycle according to the guy who wrote the book, Phil Anderson, says that we are just exiting the mid cycle slowdown, which leads us to the winner's curse. It's time to ignore blowhards like Robert Kiyosaki or your uncle who's a real estate agent and listen to the voices who have consistently had a history of saying the contrarian opinion on real estate at the right time and been right. Those voices are saying real estate is entering an expansionary phase.
ownership: Most regular people don't own gold except for maybe a little jewelry. When retail goes to buy gold, that'll be the top. People who bought at $2k or goldbugs (those lovable conspiracy theorists) don't count.
Sentiment: there are just enough naysayers on the internet and public square and in real life who don't want to own gold because "it could go down". There's still a wall of worry.
Bonus: global GDP and oil production have had a 1 for 1 correlation pretty much for all of modern history. They've diverged. What does that tell you? Hint: it's not bearish.
Now gold is not an investment, but mining companies are. There's still plenty of cheap stocks out there if you want to look for them. Just compare NPV8 to market cap and as long as there isn't some fundamental reason why they are fairly valued, there's room to go a lot higher for a lot of these stocks.