Earnings are starting to roll in! I have developed this calendar of all S&P 500 events that I wanted to share. It includes historical average price volatility per each stock:[](https://preview.redd.it/s-p-500-earnings-lookahead-jan-2026-v0-pyjogjphptcg1.png?width=2956&format=png&auto=webp&s=baa4e866fc9abe7c4b0e97fe93b869fc3abb4d94)
[S&P 500 Earnings Calendar: Jan 2026](https://preview.redd.it/j8n2up92yzcg1.png?width=2962&format=png&auto=webp&s=0274b801840569f244e065d0b1cfcb4826c6cd95)
I highlighted top three highest volatility events in orange \^
# Highest expected volatility events
*(... And what I think are the key debates this quarter):*
* **MMM (Jan 20 | \~9.0%)**
* Exposure to AI-linked demand for materials and data-center infrastructure e.g. cooling liquid
* **INTC (Jan 22 | \~9.1%)**
* Government support, execution under the U.S. AI chip strategy, and Intel’s ability to reclaim relevance
* **CHTR (Jan 30 | \~11.8%)**
* Referendum on U.S. broadband demand
# What Polymarket is pricing for banks
*(as of 12th Jan EOD)*
Prediction markets are currently skewed toward **positive EPS beats** for U.S. banks next week:
* **JPM:** \~53% chance to beat (although big drop from yest.)
* **GS:** \~92%
* **WFC:** \~77%
* **MS:** \~82%
* **BAC:** \~80%
* **C:** \~53%
Here’s what investors will be watching by sector 👇
# Banks
The most debated topic may be **Trump’s proposed 10% cap on card commissions**.
However structured, such a policy would pressure **credit card profitability and credit availability**, making management commentary critical.
Other focus areas:
* Mortgage activity and consumer credit trends
* Net interest margin trajectory
* Capital return outlook
# Big Tech & Platforms
Two major debates dominate:
**1) AI spend discipline vs ROI**
* Capex trajectory: another year of aggressive data-center build, or moderating spend growth?
* Monetisation proof points: where AI is translating into revenue (cloud consumption, ad efficiency, subscriptions, devices/services)
**2) The next AI bottleneck**
* Is it **compute, power, memory, cooling, networking, or materials**?
What are the key names and debates for you?