Adobe ($ADBE) deep-dive: is Adobe being disrupted… or misunderstood?

Hi there I know self-promotion isn’t particularly welcome around here (i’m not a fan of it either), but I also know this Value Investing community includes quite a few Adobe $ADBE shareholders - and we’ve had many thoughtful discussions about whether AI and LLMs can disrupt SaaS business models. With that in mind, I recently published a deep dive on Adobe, focusing specifically on how the company is navigating AI-driven competition and potential disruption. I hope some of you find it useful. A few quick bullets: * since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, Adobe has continued to grow at +10% annually, with no clear signs of AI-driven disruption so far * Mngmt disclosed 29+ bn cumulative generations through Firefly exiting Q4, up from 24+ bn the prior quarter * Firefly app MAUs grew +30% sequentially, while 1st-time subscribers via the app increased +20% sequentially * ARR from *AI-first products* surpassed $ 250mm, hitting management’s original target one quarter ahead of schedule and roughly doubling in six months * AI-influenced ARR exceeded $5 bn, growing 40%+ y/y * Currently trading at 14x fwd P/E (+10% per year rev growth and 30% ROE) **Full deep-dive link: ⬇⬇** [https://jimmysjournal.substack.com/p/investment-thesis-adobe-inc-adbe](https://jimmysjournal.substack.com/p/investment-thesis-adobe-inc-adbe) Appreciate any feedback or counterpoints. Always happy to discuss. Thanks, guys!!!