Help me verify this. Let’s say your post-retirement expenses are $100k (real) per year. Maybe $100k is too luxurious? I imagine a few trips per year, maintenance on cars, living comfortably, support for kids (if needed).
Let’s say you have a $2-3 million retirement fund at age 65. 4% withdrawal rate.
Let’s say the market suffers an unfortunate 20% drop when you’re 66 years old. By my math, a $2-3 million retirement fund will run out in 20 years.
A $3.5-4.5 million retirement nest egg is more resilient.
Alternatively, a DB pension of $100k/yr achieves this safety.
Edit. I’m thinking a 2.5% withdrawal rate is very safe and avoids sequence of return risk. For an annual spend of 100-150k in retirement, your retirement nest egg must approach $5-6 million.