Author lays out a consumer logistics/autonomous vehicle thesis that autonomous rides will become cheap and replace car ownership, with multiple rideshare/AV players consolidating like streaming, and is bullish on Tesla, Uber, possibly Lyft and bearish on Ford and GM.
TSLA — LONG Tesla is one of the major players expected to win as autonomous vehicles replace car ownership. Eliminating the driver makes rides extremely cheap and high utilization lowers costs further, so Tesla's autonomous capability positions it to capture consumer logistics demand. The author expects consolidation among initial ride-share/AV players, with Tesla likely among the few dominant survivors.
Tesla, Waymo, uber, Lyft maybe more in the future are going to be the major players.
UBER — LONG Uber is positioned as a major player as autonomous vehicles make ride-hailing far cheaper and replace car ownership. The author likens Uber to Netflix in the 2010s due its majority ride-share market share, implying it can leverage that position as the industry shifts and consolidates. Uber is expected to remain among the few dominant consumer logistics companies.
Think of uber now, like Netflix In the 2010s. They have majority market share of ride share like Netflix had majority share of streaming.
LYFT — WATCH Lyft may be one of the major players in autonomous consumer logistics, though the author expresses only tentative bullishness. The same cost reduction and consolidation logic applies, with multiple initial winners eventually narrowing to a few. Lyft is named among the possible major players alongside Tesla, Waymo and Uber.
Overall I’m bullish, on Waymo, Tesla, uber, maybe Lyft.
F — AVOID Ford is expected to be wiped from consumer-facing auto markets and suffer a huge downfall as autonomous ride-sharing replaces private car ownership. Traditional consumer vehicle manufacturers will be reduced to supplying cars for Uber and Lyft, possibly merging with them, which is negative for Ford's current business.
I think traditional consumer car manufacturers like Ford and GM are going to be wiped from consumer facing and have a huge down fall.
GM — AVOID General Motors is expected to be wiped from consumer-facing auto markets and suffer a huge downfall as autonomous ride-sharing replaces private car ownership. Traditional consumer vehicle manufacturers will be reduced to supplying cars for Uber and Lyft, possibly merging with them, which is negative for GM's current business.
I don’t see a great future for ford, GM ECT