Navigator Company (P09). One of the leaders in paper

(Asked help to chatgpt to translate to english, based on a valuation done by portuguese investor Borja) I remembered to write this after EU-Mercosul was signed today, amazing news for Navigator. Navigaore is one of the biggest companies from Portugal, on its segment is the leader in Europe and one of the biggest in the World. It has been shorted heavily. But let's take a look on it: Navigator is one of those companies that makes more money in some years and less in others — but the key point is that it has always remained profitable, regardless of the economic cycle. It was profitable: * during the **2008 global financial crisis** * during the **European sovereign debt crisis in 2011–2012** (when Portuguese 10Y yields briefly hit ~18%) * throughout the **COVID-19 pandemic** * and also during the **high inflation period of 2022–2023** That kind of resilience is rare. For me, Navigator is the most interesting Portuguese stock going into 2026 --- ### Semapa angle (this is where it gets interesting) Navigator is **70% owned by Semapa**. Recently, Semapa agreed to sell **Secil** to Spain’s Molins Cementos for an **enterprise value of €1.4bn**. As of Sept 30, 2025, Secil had: * ~€332m net debt * ~€60m minority interests That implies **~€1bn of cash** flowing into Semapa. So the obvious question is: **what will Semapa do with this cash?** There are many options, but arguably the most value-accretive one would be a **full takeover (OPA) of Navigator**, buying out the remaining 30% free float. --- ### From Semapa’s perspective Over the last 10 years, Secil contributed about **€175.5m in net profit** to Semapa. Selling it for ~€1bn means Semapa exited at roughly **5.7x cumulative 10-year profits** — a very good deal. Now compare that with Navigator. Over the same 10-year period, Semapa paid about **€655m** to Navigator’s minority shareholders in dividends. In other words, because Semapa doesn’t own 100% of Navigator, it has effectively “given away” €655m. If you apply the same rough multiple (5.7x) to those profits, the **remaining 30% of Navigator would be worth ~€3.7bn**. And how much does the market value that 30% today? 👉 **About €653m** on Euronext Lisbon. --- ### Potential OPA math With ~€1bn of fresh cash, Semapa would be in a strong position to launch an offer for the free float. To succeed, the offer would obviously need to be **well above the current market price**. An offer around €1bn for the remaining shares would imply a **Navigator share price of ~€4.69**. With the stock currently trading around **€3.09**, that’s **50%+ upside**. --- ### Even without an OPA… Even if no takeover ever happens, Navigator still looks **fundamentally attractive and undervalued** on a medium/long-term basis.