Today was quite a brutal day in Indian markets on macro news. With earnings week beginning next week macro volatility will be compounded even more so by company specific volatility.
# Calendar: Nifty Jan 12-18
Here is the calendar view with expected earnings (in Nifty 50) for next week. Numbers represent historical absolute volatility for earnings events:
[](https://preview.redd.it/nifty-50-earnings-lookahead-jan-12-18-v0-owbget6tv7cg1.png?width=2382&format=png&auto=webp&s=63b47e957abe65a5b8f496e3ccb7f1700687546f)
https://preview.redd.it/556tsn65w7cg1.png?width=2382&format=png&auto=webp&s=babc6836a97cbcf9df4831dc7b6e7e2cb9ae648c
As can be seen, **expected volatility is not evenly distributed** across events (highlighted in **orange** in the visual).
# Highest expected move events
🔶 **WIPRO** \~**5.2%**
🔶 **HCLTECH** \~**4.6%**
🔶 **RELIANCE** \~**3.2%**
These had the highest absolute historical volatility in the last 8 earnings events.
# Other key prints next week
* **INFY**
* **HDFCLIFE**
* **TECHM**
* **ICICIBANK**
* **HDFCBANK**
One company reporting next week caught my eye specifically so I dag a bit more...
# HCLTECH Deep Dive
When I looked at historical price action around past earnings, a pattern emerged.
See here:
[](https://preview.redd.it/nifty-50-earnings-lookahead-jan-12-18-v0-38c1bg0sv7cg1.png?width=2332&format=png&auto=webp&s=e59a1c0f6b9784c4f544f3623b6495ec725fcfea)
[HCLTECH: Pre and Post Earnings Price Action](https://preview.redd.it/3ozcgkf6w7cg1.png?width=2332&format=png&auto=webp&s=51065dde3b60686614bfcb8b44e118ebcecb2fab)
Pre-earnings:
🟢 Avg 3-day cumulative move: +1.9%
Event & near event:
🟠 Avg event day → +1d: ‐0.3%
Post-earnings:
🔴 Avg next 3 days: ‐0.7%
Data suggests that HCLTECH has tended to show more positive drift leading up to earnings, whereas near or after the print, outcomes have been more muted or modestly negative on average.
What are you looking out for the most for next week of earnings?