Do you think Cameco (CCJ) is a good long-term investment? Looking for feedback on my thesis

Hey everyone, I’ve been doing some research on **Cameco (CCJ)** and wanted to get opinions from people who know the uranium / energy space better than I do. Below is my current thesis — curious to hear counterarguments, risks I might be missing, or whether this is already priced in. # One-liner Cameco is well positioned as a low-cost uranium supplier, and as global nuclear power demand accelerates, they should benefit from a structurally undersupplied uranium market, creating a compelling long-term outlook. # Company background * Canadian natural resources company * One of the largest and lowest-cost uranium producers globally * Operates tier-1 mines primarily in Canada, selling uranium worldwide * Tier-1 mines matter because they have: * Much higher-grade ore * Lower operating costs * Long mine lives (decades) → stronger long-term visibility and margins # Why I like the setup * Leader in the uranium supply chain * Produces some of the highest-grade uranium on earth — ore grades can be \~100x richer than global averages, meaning less mining is needed per unit of output * Strong industry tailwinds * Uranium market appears structurally short: reactors have consumed more uranium than mines produce * Nuclear demand is accelerating due to: * Japan restarting reactors * China building more reactors than the rest of the world combined * Europe reversing some anti-nuclear policies * Rapid growth in data centers increasing demand for clean, baseload power (where nuclear is one of the only scalable options) # Competition * Main competitor is Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer * They operate in Kazakhstan, which introduces: * Higher geopolitical risk * Supply-chain reliance on Russia * My view is that Western utilities prefer secure, transparent suppliers, which benefits Cameco despite Kazatomprom’s scale # Potential catalysts * Utilities re-entering multi-year contracting cycles, which should lift Cameco’s realized prices and earnings * Any supply disruptions at Kazatomprom * Continued increases in uranium spot and contract prices highlighting Cameco’s low-cost advantage # Risks / things I’m watching * Uranium prices could fall, hurting earnings * Operational or technical issues at mines * Changes in Canadian nuclear or mining regulations that could impact production * AI data centers don't end up working out, and hugely impact Cameco's earnings Would love to hear: * What am I missing? * Is this already priced in? * How do people think about uranium cyclicality vs long-term structural demand? Thank you!