Work in finance during the day and started poking at prediction markets as a side thing mostly out of curiosity
And uh. these markets are soft as hell compared to anything im used to 😭
Running some basic models on economic events, stuff that would get arbed out instantly in equities, and the backtests look way too good. like suspiciously good. either im overfitting to a tiny sample or there's genuinely persistent edge here
Part of me thinks its real because these markets are new and most quant shops aren't paying attention yet. other part of me thinks I'm huffing copium and about to learn an expensive lesson
Anyone else building stuff in this space or exploring it? curious what data sources people use and whether the edge holds up live or if its all just backtest fantasy. need someone to sanity check me before i start actually sizing up.