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Hi everyone,
I’m considering investing in the Chinese market because I’m convinced that Chinese tech could rise in power to the point where, in a few years, it could compete with U.S. tech in areas such as data centers, AI, or even military technology.
However, I have serious doubts about the possible scenario. While China has managed to export consumer tech products, it has often been held back as soon as it starts to threaten U.S. interests. Huawei is a good example: when it began crushing the competition, including Apple and Samsung, it was quickly stopped. Today, Huawei is little more than a Chinese company with limited international exposure, forced to use outdated processors and an operating system that is unusable outside China, making its products uncompetitive. Even when it tried to diversify to survive, Huawei failed with 5G antennas, as Europeans excluded it from the market just like the Americans did. Today, Huawei has essentially become an instrument of the Chinese state, leading the charge in the technological revolution. Some say they are developing a lithography prototype similar to ASML’s technology, thanks to heavy state investment and the poaching of ASML executives.
However, even if they succeed, what will that lead to? The U.S. and their European allies will ban imports for reasons of national security. Then, for political reasons, some countries will want to limit their imports as well.
What do you think?