DD Coinbase Global, Inc.

AI Summary

Author views Coinbase as slightly undervalued on fee-based revenue, margin and cash flow, and will watch for months for a crypto-season recovery.

COIN — WATCH The author argues Coinbase is slightly undervalued because its fee-based revenue is less volatile than issuing its own coin, with a P/E around 20 and net margin above 40%. He expects the stock to rebound when crypto market sentiment and hype return, and also sees future prediction markets as an additional growth driver. He is not buying now because Q4 2025 is expected to be weak, so the idea is a watch over months.

Because of that I believe Coinbase is currently slightly undervalued and when the "season" starts they will make a "comeback".

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Hey everybody,

Coinbase is getting my attention lately, it made it to phase 2 of my selecting path.

**Quick summary of dd style:**  
Phase 1: I have a list with 5 to 10 stocks and do my dd over a month or two. Usually 80% get crossed off.  
Phase 2: 1 to 3 stocks make it and it's getting really interesting.  
Phase 3: I buy it, usually only one stock makes it.

**DD Coinbase:**

**Quantitative:**  
P/E: around 20 (solid)  
Net profit margin: +40% (are you kidding me)  
Cashflow: got smaller in 2025 but is still positive  
Sources of income: transaction revenue, subscription and services revenue, other stuff like interest income, miscellaneous fees etc.

There is of course more to that but these are the most important factors to me. Overall what I like is that the company isn't based on their own coin. They make their money from transaction fees which is a much more sustainable revenue and less volatile.

**Qualitative:**  
Currently we are in a "c\*ypto winter" and this market lives from hype and false prophets. From my experience I can say c\*ypto is a magnet for people who usually have no financial background and aren't so responsible with their money. Everything comes fast and everything goes fast in this market. Because of that I believe Coinbase is currently slightly undervalued and when the "season" starts they will make a "comeback".

Also the "future" looks bright for them, they want to implement "Prediction Markets" which is a fancy word for sports betting/gambling. So people can lose money faster, they already have an army of gambling addicts which they now can milk holistically. Amazing

I like that Coinbase is overall playing it "safe" in this very very strange market and focuses on solid revenue instead of burning bright for one season. Its a very easy business model in this very unreagulated market, I like this.

**Will I buy it now ?**  
I don't know, it only made it to "phase 2" of my DD. Also I don't believe they will recover anytime soon and Q4 2025 wont be amazing, so I will keep observing it for a while (months). Time is not against me!

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