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Inflated population, low electricity output, fake GDP numbers...and? When did a little fraud ever hold back an economy?
Jokes aside, you will probably lose your money if you short the Naira (or economy at large). Unless you happen to have more liquidity than the Federal Government of Nigeria, and well...only one of you sits on 30 billion barrels of oil.
Still, don't just take my word for it. There are actually some things to consider as to why the factors that historically weaken the Naira are not as relevant anymore, and aren't looking to become relevant again.
Importation
First, by far the biggest FX drain on Nigeria is money spent on importation of refined petroleum products.
Dangote Refinery almost singlehandedly means that this is a non-issue moving forward. [Already, fuel import bills have declined significantly](https://www.google.com/amp/s/punchng.com/nigeria-imports-15bn-litres-of-petrol-despite-dangote-refinery-output/%3famp), and will continue to do so as production ramps up.
So, you get domestic production by a company that pays taxes, hires people who also pay taxes, reduces the import bills, and also increase the exports? It's not just petrol either, its petroleum products. So aviation fuel, plastics, diesel? All cheaper.
Speculation/Arbitrage
If you watched the Naira under the previous administration, they ran a dual exchange rate system where you could get cheap (subsidised) dollars from the CBN. However, people just took it to the black market, where they sold it for a tidy markup. Obvious disaster.
That is gone, and the removal of that system (and fuel subsidies which cost $10 billion in 2022 alone) means that what is another significant FX problem to the Nigerian government is a non-issue moving forward. Just 4 months after it was ended in 2023 (Tinubu administration takes over), [and the FG has saved appox. 1.5 trillion Naira](https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/4-months-in-and-heres-how-much-nigeria-has-saved-on-fuel-subsidies/p9s0g5e).
That shock caused the "official" value of the Naira to decline sharply, but it has corrected itself, and remained stable ever since.
Inflation
Because of a lack of proper centralized power supply, most Nigerians rely on petrol to power their lives. This means that a change in petrol prices (fuel subsidies were removed) causes a change in the price of literally everything else. Inflation was at 35% in December 2024, and by November 2025 it was at 14.45%
Now, the NBS did some revision of the CPI, so a part of that decline is probably a sleight of hand.
Still. Like I said, petrol prices control the prices of everything else in Nigeria. And because of Dangote's Refinery (you really cannot overstate the impact), [fuel prices went from a high of about N1300 per liter in March, to N699 in January 2026. ](https://businessday.ng/energy/oilandgas/article/dangote-refinery-cut-petrol-price-to-n699-litre/#:~:text=With%20retail%20prices%20potentially%20dropping,remained%20stubbornly%20elevated%20throughout%202025.)
FG Revenue
Historically the FG has relied on oil sales to fund itself. This is clearly unsustainable, and oil prices are likely to continue falling in the near future.
From Jan 1, 2026 Nigeria will be operating under a much more coherent tax system, and the FG is (for obvious reasons) very hellbent on raising tax revenues. Higher Federal revenues means less borrowing, which is less debt servicing and more building infrastructure that boosts economic productivity, which raises revenue and the cycle goes on.
As a case study, a state called Enugu has managed to raise its internally generated revenue (IGR) from N34 billion in 2023, to N180 billion in 2024, projects N600 billion in 2025, and N870 billion in 2026. [Capital expenditure was 84% in 2025, and is projected to be 80% in 2026](https://businessday.ng/opinion/article/enugus-n162trn-2026-budget-consolidating-the-march-to-30bn-economy/?amp).
Electricity
On the electricity side of things, while the actual electric output is low, there are some fundamental reasons to this. One of which is a 6 trillion Naira debt that the FG owes to GenCos.
The FG has plans to issue [4 trillion Naira](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/nigeria-approves-26-billion-electricity-sector-debt-refinancing-plan-2025-08-14/) in bonds to pay most of it off, so that won't be (as much) of an issue, and gives GenCos the room to produce more power (they don't run at capacity).
There are other more minor things. The FG plans to conduct a census, National IDs are becoming mandated, Cement production (for housing and road construction) is ramping up, fertilizer production, I could go on.
The foundations that are required to slowly build an actual economy are slowly being built up.
So no, I will not be shorting the Naira or Nigeria, and you probably shouldn't either.