Author outlines a barbell strategy that holds TLTW/BIL/SPY puts and rotates into JEPI/JEPQ and broad equity ETFs as VIX and SPY drawdown triggers fire, then resets at new highs.
TLTW — LONG Author holds TLTW as a 93% core allocation to earn 10-14% yield from covered calls on 20+ year Treasuries, premised on a neutral-to-dovish Fed that lets long duration bonds provide yield and potential capital appreciation. The strategy sells half at resistance and reloads at support to add 2-4% rotation alpha. Stated risk is that a hawkish Fed crushes TLTW, mitigated by a BIL buffer and taking profits at resistance.
This strategy assumes the Fed remains neutral to dovish. In this environment, long duration bonds (TLT/TLTW) provide yield and potential capital appreciation.
TLT — WATCH Author would add TLT if it breaks below 3-6 month support with volume on a Fed scare, treating it as a recovery trade because pure duration has no covered-call drag. The concrete catalyst is a break below support such as $86 on a Fed scare. This is a conditional future strategy phase; the source does not say its entry trigger has occurred.
TLT breaks $86 on Fed scare → Add TLT position for the recovery trade
SPY — WATCH Author rotates into SPY (40%) when VIX rises above 35 and SPY is down 20%, intending to ride the recovery after a severe drawdown. The forward-only rule holds the position until reset conditions are met (VIX<18 and SPY within 5% of all-time high). The catalyst is VIX>35 and SPY down 20%. This is a conditional future strategy phase; the source does not say its entry trigger has occurred.
Trigger: VIX > 35 AND SPY down 20% Action: Sell JEPI/JEPQ, buy SPY 40%, QQQ 40%, IWM 20%
QQQ — WATCH Author rotates into QQQ (40%) when VIX rises above 35 and SPY is down 20%, expecting to ride the recovery after a severe drawdown. The forward-only rule holds the position until reset conditions are met (VIX<18 and SPY within 5% of all-time high). The catalyst is VIX>35 and SPY down 20%. This is a conditional future strategy phase; the source does not say its entry trigger has occurred.
Trigger: VIX > 35 AND SPY down 20% Action: Sell JEPI/JEPQ, buy SPY 40%, QQQ 40%, IWM 20%
IWM — WATCH Author allocates 20% to IWM when VIX rises above 35 and SPY is down 20%, expecting small-cap equities to participate in the recovery after a severe drawdown. The forward-only rule holds the position until reset conditions are met (VIX<18 and SPY within 5% of all-time high). The catalyst is VIX>35 and SPY down 20%. This is a conditional future strategy phase; the source does not say its entry trigger has occurred.
Trigger: VIX > 35 AND SPY down 20% Action: Sell JEPI/JEPQ, buy SPY 40%, QQQ 40%, IWM 20%