A few days ago we had a great discussion here about how useful politician trades are in signal research, especially given the reporting delay. I decided to look into that by calculating “delay-adjusted portfolios” assuming trades are entered on the disclosure date, not the actual trade date.
What I found:
* Delay-adjusted returns are generally similar to original returns
* There are some unexpected outliers though: Tim Moore (R) did +20% original vs +55% delay-adjusted over in the last year
* Certain politicians are significantly impacted: Markwayne Mullin (R) did +118% over 3Y originally vs +82% delay-adjusted
* Bigger traders like Pelosi (D) or Ro Khanna (D) are barely affected by delay adjustments
* As awareness grows, reporting delays for large trades are shrinking, or is it just coincidence? (e.g. Jefferson Shreve (R) disclosed a recent $30M buy with just a 2-day delay)
Views attached:
* 1) ROI rankings
* 2–3) Pelosi: original vs delay-adjusted returns
Curious to hear your thoughts!