Busted IPO: VIA

With all the buzz about autonomous fleets, VIA gets ignored. The company went public in September, trading briefly above $52, peaking at a \~$4B EV. It is currently under $2B EV. VIA sells a software solution (SaaS business model) for municipalities to manage fleets, taxis, et al. At the most basic level, it brings Uber/Lyft-like transparency and operational efficiency to public transportation options. It allows the public transportation option to function much like the private providers. I think we can all agree that Uber/Lyft are not always the most affordable option but the convenience of their service often makes the public alternatives hard to swallow. Revenue is growing at well over 20% a year, from both new contracts and service expansion within existing customers. These contracts have a long lives and no viable commercial alternative. Gross margin is 40%. Despite the good growth track record, the fact that VIA is a "Rule of 60" company (sales growth + gross margin > 60), the business is trading less than 4x revenues, well below the average SaaS company and well below more mature SaaS businesses. The CEO owns 5% of the company. He has sold no shares since the IPO. His interests are aligned with shareholders. There is some risk of VC investors selling more when the post-IPO lockup expires at the end of March so that is something to be aware of. However, given that many of these VCs invested in the pre-IPO $3B rounds (well above the current $2B valuation), that selling may not materialize immediately upon lock-up expiration. I believe VIA can easily achieve $1B in revenues by 2030 and trade at 5x those revenues. That is more than a double from here. I believe the downside from $28 is minimal as revenues will continue to grow and the multiple on sales is unlikely to fall further (outside a general market correction).