Analyzes potential impact of lifted U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil, naming U.S. refiners as beneficiaries and Canadian heavy crude producers as losers.
VLO — WATCH Author argues that if U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil are lifted, Valero could process an additional 300-400K barrels/day of cheaper heavy crude, lowering feedstock costs and improving Gulf Coast refining margins. The catalyst is a potential policy change allowing Venezuelan crude to return to the U.S. market.
Valero (VLO, which can process an additional 300-400K barrels/day)
PBF — WATCH Author identifies PBF Energy as a major beneficiary if U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil are lifted, because Gulf Coast refineries designed for heavy crude would gain access to cheaper Venezuelan barrels.
Major beneficiaries would include companies like Valero (VLO, which can process an additional 300-400K barrels/day), PBF Energy (PBF), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
PSX — WATCH Author identifies Phillips 66 as a major beneficiary if U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil are lifted, because Gulf Coast refineries designed for heavy crude would gain access to cheaper Venezuelan barrels.
Major beneficiaries would include companies like Valero (VLO, which can process an additional 300-400K barrels/day), PBF Energy (PBF), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
CNQ — AVOID Author argues Canadian heavy crude producers like Canadian Natural Resources would lose competitiveness and pricing power if U.S. buyers can access Venezuelan crude again, since Canada exports 90% of its oil to the U.S. The loss of the U.S. market share would hurt their pricing.
Canadian heavy crude producers (like CNQ and CVE), whose exports that filled the gap during the sanctions period would lose competitiveness and pricing power (Canada exports 90% of its oil to the U.S.).
CVE — AVOID Author argues Canadian heavy crude producers like Cenovus Energy would lose competitiveness and pricing power if U.S. buyers can access Venezuelan crude again, since Canada exports 90% of its oil to the U.S. The loss of the U.S. market share would hurt their pricing.
Canadian heavy crude producers (like CNQ and CVE), whose exports that filled the gap during the sanctions period would lose competitiveness and pricing power (Canada exports 90% of its oil to the U.S.).