As we all know: Venezuela, Iran mean squat.
The icy island with no roads, little infrastructure, and very few inhabitants called Greenland does though.
\*IF\* we see a US take-over of this territory, it effectively means the end of two things: the US-European alliance, and the end of the (on paper) rule based international system.
The EU might be relatively smaller and less significant then it used to be. Yet, it still packs massive economic muscles, that could be increased if need be. It’s not a good ally to lose…and taking Greenland is sure to break this long standing alliance up. Less trade, boycots of US products, are sure to follow. Europe might shift closer to China, paradoxically
Russia will be emboldened, a war outside Ukraine is not unthinkable anymore if NATO breaks up.
It will also pave the way for a new international standars where might makes right. Taiwan is less secure, the whole world will see shifting alliances. Everyone will arm up. Unstability and less trade is never good for markets.
Thus, first signs of a military take-over of Greenland, the markets will be blood red. And, not temporary. It will signal the decline and crash that inevitably happens from time to time. I’ll be sure to drop out of the markets at the first rifle shot.