Spectral AI (MDAI)

Been doing some DD on this one since I've seen it highlighted here before. Curious if anyone has updated DD of their own. Trading at around $1.45 right now. Spectral AI (MDAI) uses multispectral imaging (MSI) to see beMDAIneath the surface of the skin to provide clinicians with an objective, binary prediction of wound healing potential on day one of the injury. Current standard of care relies on the naked eye. Clinical studies have repeatedly shown that even experienced burn specialists are only about 60-70% accurate in assessing burn depth on the first day of injury. Because they cannot be sure, surgeons wait. They apply dressings and observe the wound for 14-21 days. This waiting period incurs massive costs (hospital bed days at \~$3,000-$5,000/day), increases infection risk (sepsis), and delays patient return to work**.** MDAI's DeepView provides a >80% accurate assessment on day one, allowing for immediate excision and grafting of non-healing tissue, or immediate discharge of healing tissue. MDAI does not use Generative AI (like GPT) which creates new data based on probabilistic patterns. Instead, it uses Discriminative AI, which classifies existing data into binary categories (Heal vs. Non-Heal). The "moat" around this AI is the training data. Spectral AI has spent over a decade curating a proprietary clinical database containing over 340 billion clinically validated data points. This database links specific spectral signatures to ground-truth clinical outcomes (i.e., did the wound actually heal 21 days later?).  A competitor cannot simply buy a hyperspectral camera and replicate DeepView. They would need to conduct years of longitudinal clinical trials to replicate the training dataset. This "data moat" is the most valuable asset on the balance sheet, virtually impossible to value using standard book metrics. MDAI holds 12 US patents and 14 international patents. The central catalyst for the MDAI investment thesis is the pending FDA decision. They applied for De Novo review in June 2025. The FDA's De Novo review timeline is usually around 150 days, but reviews of AI devices have been seen to extend to 9-12 months, which puts the decision somewhere between Q1 and early Q2 2026. This decision looks to be the catalyst. Looks to me like the market is pricing for the current financial optics (declining R&D revenue) but inefficiently pricing the future probability. The stock is trading as a distressed asset, yet the balance sheet has 18 months of runway and the clinical data is superior to the standard of care.