U.S. military action in Venezuela & implications for OIL 🛢️

As we know, America executed a Buffett style hostile takeover of Venezuela, and while everyone is understandably focused on the geopolitical shit show, I can’t help but think about what this could mean over the course of 2026. Venezuela has been sitting on the largest proven oil reserves on Earth for decades, and for just as long it’s been the geopolitical equivalent of a zombie company. It has insane assets, zero execution, sanctions stacked on sanctions, and leadership that managed to destroy value every quarter no matter how high oil prices went. We already know Chevron ($CVX) has been involved in Venezuela for a while, and it doesn’t seem like a stretch to assume that other major Western oil players could eventually find themselves in the picture as the situation evolves. Names like Exxon ($XOM), ConocoPhillips ($COP), BP ($BP), and Shell ($SHEL) all have the technical capability and balance sheets to operate in complex environments if the political conditions allow it. Even if production ramps slowly, the market doesn’t usually wait for barrels to actually hit the water before repricing expectations. Just thinking this could be a prime opportunity to pick up CVX call options expiring 6 months or next year (something I’m already eyeing) Oil isn’t the only angle either. Venezuela is also rich in minerals like gold, rare earths, industrial metals. AGAIN, many of which currently sit underdeveloped or locked behind political tape. If the U.S. is serious about reducing dependence on China for critical minerals, Venezuela suddenly looks less like a pariah state and more like a strategic balance-sheet addition. That opens an entirely separate line of thinking around mining operations, infrastructure investment, and long-term supply chain diversification. Which brings me to the China piece. With Taiwan risk constantly in the background, the U.S. has a strong incentive to hedge against a future where access to Taiwanese manufacturing and Chinese-controlled minerals becomes constrained or weaponized. In that context, Venezuela doesn’t just look like an oil mission, it looks like a geopolitical substitution. Lose access to one strategically vital region, secure another. Energy, minerals, and influence all rolled into one package. None of this is a prediction and none of it is a recommendation. It’s just hard to ignore that this could be any one of our opportunities to afford rent again and to stop living out of our cars. Anyways, thanks for reading, I’m so happy you made it to the end! \*looks deeply in your eyes & blushes\* You place your hand on my face \*leans in & closes eyes\* We kiss.