NFE - why even heavy dilution will lead to a big upswing

The stock currently is priced for bankcrupty. Different dilution scenarios, even the most severe ones e.g. totaling 620 million shares by issuing >400 million would make NFE still be around 320% more worth, even after counting in a worse EV/EBITDA ratio compared to peers. **The assumed scenario and the reasons:** * post-dilution share count rises to 310-620M (50-200% increase) * Equity value assumes conservative growth (e.g., partial backlog conversion, no major AI/LNG boom), leading to phased re-rating over 6-12 months. * new signed contracts come into play e.g. Puerto Rico or Brazils energy auction Projected EBITDA due to new PR deal will add \~$450 million; NFE's Brazil plant will be operational in the middle of 2026 and will add around \~$400 million EBITDA. With all current operations, 2024 - \~$800 million EBITDA, that would lead to around $1.4-1.6B EBITDA. Now peers have EV/EBITDA multiples at around 8-12x (e.g. Cheniere Energy) We will assign NFE a lower multiple because we will assume, that the market has to realize and trust it first again: 1. A EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x with 620 million total shares (heavy dilution scenario), new debt standing on \~$4b would lead to an equity value of $3B -> EV of $7B (= 5x \* projected EBITDA) - 4B in debt 2. Equity Value divided by New Share count ≈ $3,000,000,000 / 620,000,000 shares = \~$4.84 per share **The \~320% upside is then (Price Target - Current Price) / Current Price = ($4.80 - $1.14) / $1.14 ≈ 321%** **To make it more extreme a scenario where NFE would issue 1.3B new shares and is still undervalued:** **$3B (Equity value) / 1.54B (issued total shares, 1.3B newly issued shares) -> $1.95/share still 71% upside compared to $1.14** Surely $1.14 is way to low and prices it currently only for bankruptcy and no heavy dilution scenario.