Author presents a concentrated long thesis on Western-aligned uranium and rare earth producers, expecting structural procurement crises to re-rate them into 2026-2028.
UUUU — LONG Author holds Energy Fuels in a concentrated basket of Western-aligned uranium and rare earth producers. He argues Western governments and utilities will prioritize supply security over cost after the Venezuela signal, causing a procurement-based re-rating similar to the 2006-2007 uranium bull run. He expects supply constraints and competitive utility contracting between 2026-2028 to drive prices and equities higher, while acknowledging risk-off around Taiwan could cause near-term downside first.
My core holdings are Energy Fuels (UUUU), Cameco (CCJ), Centrus Energy (LEU), MP Materials (MP), and Lynas (LYSDY).
CCJ — LONG Author holds Cameco as part of a Western-aligned uranium and rare earth supply chain basket. He expects utilities to rush to secure long-term uranium contracts as enrichment capacity stays constrained and geopolitical risk rises, repeating the 2006-2007 procurement crisis. This would re-rate uranium equities beyond traditional valuation models between 2026-2028; main stated risk is a possible near-term risk-off if Taiwan tensions escalate.
I chose these US/US allied companies because they represent critical choke points in supply chains that the United States and the West utilities cannot easily replace.
LEU — LONG Author holds Centrus Energy for uranium conversion and enrichment capacity outside China. He argues enrichment capacity is constrained and Western utilities will prioritize secure supply over price, driving procurement-driven price increases similar to prior uranium cycles. He expects this structural dynamic to play out during 2026-2028, with the near-term risk of broad risk-off if Taiwan tensions flare.
That’s why I’m concentrated in uranium and rare earth companies that sit outside China and inside Western-aligned supply chains.
MP — LONG Author holds MP Materials as a rare earth producer and processor outside China. He expects China to restrict rare earth supply further after Venezuela, creating a non-China supply shortage that cannot be quickly replaced because processing takes a decade or more. He predicts a procurement crisis and upward re-rating of Western rare earth equities between 2026-2028, with a possible near-term risk-off if Taiwan tensions escalate.
China controls the majority of these rare earths and, following Venezeula, supply restrictions are only going to get worse.
LYSDY — LONG Author holds Lynas as a rare earth producer outside China. He argues Western governments will prioritize secure, politically aligned rare earth supply over cheap supply, and China's export controls will tighten, making alternatives scarce. He expects procurement-driven price increases and equity re-rating between 2026-2028, with near-term risk-off if Taiwan tensions rise.
Rare earths require not just mining, but complex processing infrastructure that takes a decade or more to develop.