TSLA is up over 2% in premarket trading, even though its Q4 delivery and production numbers came in below expectations.
Here are the key figures from the release:
Q4 deliveries: 418,227 vehicles
(vs. estimates around 440,907)
Q4 production: 434,358 vehicles
(vs. projected \~470,780)
Full-year 2025 deliveries: 1,636,129 vehicles
On the surface, this looks like a miss across both deliveries and production, which would normally pressure the stock. Yet the market reaction is clearly positive heading into the open.
A few possible reasons for the move:
Expectations may have already been lowered going into the print
Investors could be focusing more on margin stabilization, AI/robotics, autonomy, or longer-term narratives rather than near-term unit counts
Positioning and short-term flows dominating the open rather than fundamentals
This sets up an interesting question for today’s session:
Is this strength sustainable, or is it just a knee‑jerk premarket reaction before the market digests the numbers more fully?
Curious how others are reading this, bullish resilience, or a setup for volatility once regular trading kicks in?