TSLA Q4 Deliveries Miss Expectations, but Energy Storage Shines

Tesla just reported Q4 deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, missing the market's expectations of 440,907, a 5.2% drop. Full year deliveries came in at 1.64 million, down 8.6% YoY, with an estimate of 1.6 million. The Q4 miss can be attributed to a few key factors: the expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit, the aging product line (Model 3/Y still lead but are lacking major updates), increased competition in Europe and China, and some brand image issues. However, the energy storage business has been a bright spot, with deployments hitting 14.2 GWh in Q4 (up 29% YoY) and a total of 46.7 GWh for the year. Demand for Megapack and Powerwall remains strong, which is definitely a positive for the energy division. From a technical perspective, the stock is in a bearish environment, with support at 440 and resistance at 460. The bullish signal at 460 from December 30 has pretty much played out, and the stock has recently dipped below the 440 support. If it doesn’t reclaim 440, it’s likely to fall to 432.5 and 420. If the stock reclaims 440 next week, we could see a rebound, testing the 445, 450, and 460 resistance levels. However, unless it breaks 460 and re-enters a bullish environment, any rally could be short-lived. For those looking to go long, it might be better to wait until the stock breaks and holds above 460 before jumping in. Entering in a bearish market might leave you stuck in a losing position.