Author proposes a 2026 allocation shifting from VOO/VTI to growth, dividend, semiconductor, gold, international, and cash ETFs based on expectations of a weaker dollar and high US debt.
VTI — AVOID The author is selling all VOO/VTI because they expect a weaker dollar and much larger US debt. They argue buying VTI is no longer sufficient and prefer rotating into more targeted allocations. This is a broad-market avoid based on macro concerns.
Because of how US Debt is shifting, buying VTI in not sufficient anymore.
SCHG — LONG The author allocates 30% to SCHG for 2026. They believe US growth companies with cash-rich monopoly characteristics will survive high rates, making this a core growth holding.
30% SCHG (Growth), US Growth: Cash-rich monopolies that survive high rates.
SCHD — LONG The author allocates 20% to SCHD seeking US quality value companies with real profits. They aim to avoid what they call zombies in VTI, favoring dividend-paying quality for 2026.
20% SCHD (Value), US Quality: Companies with real profits, avoiding the "zombies" in VTI.
SMH — LONG The author allocates 15% to SMH as a high-risk bet on the AI buildout, calling SMH the play for 2026. They use a 15% trailing stop to avoid being a bag holder when AI purchasing eventually grinds to a halt, which they expect at some point.
SMH is my high risk bet with a 15% trailing stop (and it cranked +3% today so far), I think SMH is the play for 2026 but don't want to be the bag holder when AI purchasing grinds to a halt and it will at some point.
GLD — LONG The author allocates 15% to GLD as insurance against US dollar debasement. This reflects a bearish dollar view and a desire for a defensive asset in the 2026 portfolio.
15% Gold (GLD), The Insurance: Protection against US dollar "debasement."