▶ Full Post Text
Some posters liked my tongue-in-cheek 2026 predictions started by another Redditor, and I thought it's only fair that I do a follow up with a more serious one.
This is a great exercise for any investor to do annually, and it's fun and interesting to look back on Dec 31 yearly to see what type of an investor we are or we think we are.
After years of doing this, I can say that my investing philosophy is a mix of true Keynesianism and investing philosophy mix of Buffett, late Munger (since 1980s) and also Burry (since 2005).
Disclaimer: My post shouldn't be taken as financial advice, and everyone thinking of following it is responsible for their own complete DD. My thesis or mixed of them are my own views, and I hold medium to large portfolios in both Western and Asian portfolios.
Trump tariffs will be taken down by the US courts. His admin will continue to fight tooth and nail, but the rest of the world's economies, including most of American companies and consumers alike will be glad the tariffs idiocy ends.
Consumer and corporate spending will go up slightly due to tariffs ending, but I think it will be 3rd or 4th quarter before the increased spending will bring much needed relief to the global economy.
Until then, the jobless trend will unfortunately continue, and consumers will continue to pause spending and seek out only deals. That will affect organizations' CAPEX, and that means tech and predominantly AI spending will go down.
Until some company (not OpenAI, Meta or Apple at the rate they're going, so maybe Google, Musk's Grok or possibly an Asian competitor) come up with a RL, 'everyone and every company needs it or almost AGI' usage for the world, the AI hype might go the way of Napster or Netscape at worst case, OMG the AI bubble will bring down the whole S&P500 scenario, Zuck's Metaverse at 50/50 meh it's a niche product scenario, or it'll be the next Google search algorithm that can possibly merge Google search, MS Office suite, and also Siri, FB, TikTok and WeChat giant app that can automate basically 85 to 99% of our daily lives.
For new investors, I would tread lightly on going YOLO into all tech chips and software, and learn to diversify into other staple companies which consumers need year round in any good and bad economy.
For slightly to well-versed investors, learn to play the game at cycling your holdings into energy, staple, tech and pharmaceutical sectors.
For this with some extra money after hitting all of the metrics of a good, consistent portfolio, continue to look for diamonds in the rough, and I would also encourage experienced investors to look outside of North America for more interesting opportunities.
Avoid crypto, companies with lots of unrealistic CEO hype (Musk, Altman, MSTR guy, Cathie, and possibly Jensen but we'll know more in 2026 to 2027 when Google and AMD hits full steam into NVDA's moat with better efficiency and cheaper options).
Anyone who doesn't agree with my long-ish analysis and predictions do post here with your retorts, and polite comments will be responded, while rude commentors will be ignored.