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I have been an active participant in financial markets since 1998.
I have seen a lot of stuff.
In 2026, $ASTS is going to go parabolic. It is going to move faster than anyone can think possible. A lot of people will make a lot of money, but they will have sold way too early, generated a large tax bill and will never get a chance to buy those shares back. That’s not the worst thing, we all have to live and eat.
When I say parabolic, I am thinking Volkswagen in 2008, Ercot electricity prices in 2021, the Gold EFP during Covid, negative oil, Game-stop in 2021.
The central reason I believe this is because the company is undervalued by at least 10-30x. You don’t have to multiply 3bn customers by a large % of uptake times a small $ per month to come up with obscenely large numbers. Try 3bn * 20% *$2/month = $14.4bn/year. That’s very low with what the Saudi pre-pay implies (30mm customers out of 3bn). It doesn’t include government contracts, first responders, etc. I think those numbers are low.
The reason it will go parabolic is because there are ~40mm shares that are sold short. It’s not like the shorts know what they are doing. They have historically increased at the worst times. We can all speculate on who and why they are short, but it’s been unprofitable and futile. They are obviously very wealthy and don’t operate under normal risk limits. There has been a lot of money made (on paper) that it’s not hard to imagine someone being able to digest a cumulative $2bn loss (30mm shares for $70).
But now we might be getting to the point where losses begin to matter. Compounding works in both directions. I always try to put myself in someone else’s position. The next piece of good news comes out and the stock doubles. You now have lost another $3bn on your short position. What do you do? What collateral are you posting? What are your counterparties making you do? Then the stock doubles again to $300. The shorts are down a collective $11bn. There are only a handful of people who can withstand that and that would cause a problem at any institution providing credit. Meanwhile ASTS is worth a little over $100bn.
I’d probably have an average size position in $ASTS at a $500bn valuation (1-2% of my portfolio). I’d figure at 50% of Starlink I’d take my chances. Compared to OpenAI or some other private valuations, $500bn for $ASTS wouldn’t be so outrageous.
Anyway, we need to go up 20x from here to be at that valuation. People will figure it out soon. It will probably be when everyone begins Beta testing in the 1H2026 and we start getting hard numbers on user uptake and cost per month. When the market figures it out is impossible to know. But as long as ASTS’s stuff works, it’s inevitable and if everybody isn’t lying about the pace, it’s right around the corner.
Too many people are talking about Beta testing beginning imminently. We just had congressional testimony as to our manufacturing pace. There is no way all of these people are lying.
People don’t own enough. If I had a $1bn, I would put $100mm into this easy. I can’t believe Tepper and Druckenmiller are missing this. So many funds are missing this or are way under-allocated because the right people haven’t focused on it.
The company has said they are done raising capital. They should be. Even if they aren’t, it won’t be much.
I simply don’t think there will be enough shares anywhere near this price.
The only way for the shorts to be able to cover is if Abel or Miki sell. I don’t think Miki sells much of anything. When it goes, there will be no way out. Unlike many of the other squeezes, this one actually has the fundamentals totally behind it. Timing it is close to impossible, but it’s gonna happen.
- Taken and posted by user @YenTrdr on X