2026 Uranium Squeeze — 37-page DD (All you need to know)

I've spent the last few weeks trying to become familiar with the uranium market given how much talk there seems to be about SMRs/the nuclear renaissance. Like you, I've come confidently to the conclusion that the uranium market is long overdue its bull-run. I'm sure this gets said every year, but I think 2026 is the year. * **My 2026 spot price target:** $115/lb (base-case) / $135/lb (bull-case) I've set out why in this research thesis; I've tried to be as comprehensive as possible whilst still ensuring accessibility for those who might not know too much about the ins-and-outs of the uranium market. I hope its readable enough! If you think I've missed anything out, have misunderstood anything, or even understated anything let me know. [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jQ-k9aKiZ2ABu9w2F5YfilR17vzIpZb-DVedoJgLVXM/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jQ-k9aKiZ2ABu9w2F5YfilR17vzIpZb-DVedoJgLVXM/edit?usp=sharing) **For those looking for a quick summary** **who are new to uranium:** There's two parts to the uranium squeeze: (A) mechanical demand -> contract roll-off (B) nuclear renaissance -> SMR initial loading * **A large block of post-Fukushima uranium contracts which were signed at <$50/lb expires starting in 2026**, forcing utilities back into the market at the same time at current higher prices (>$80lb). * 9m lbs uranium demand uncovered as contracted supply falls to 50 M lbs from 56 M lbs * Yet total requirements, assuming demand increases by 2% in the coming year, increases to 57.8 M lbs * Demand coverage falls to **85%** * **Utility fuel coverage falls below regulator- and board-acceptable levels**, turning procurement from a choice into a requirement. * Utilities have been delaying this for ages - in fact, they've been locked in something of a pricing war with suppliers for years over this. * But as mentioned above, the coverage draw-down reaches a critical point in 2026: they must sign new contracts and accept these higher prices or risk breaching government secondary supply regulations *(they will have to eat into buffer stocks to keep running)*. * So contracts, on the terms of the producers, literally becomes **mandatory:** especially at 85% coverage - prices likely above $80/lb * **As utilities start signing contracts, this leads to a procurement wave -** game theory explains this: all utilities would rather none sign contracts (shifting price power back to them) in order to keep prices low; yet as they reach this critical mass, they are forced to * Once one starts, they are all incentivised to start as they know contract prices will only increase * Hence, a **procurement wave** \-> surge in demand * **Yet whilst there's a surge in demand, supply remains inelastic:** Uranium miners take at least 5 years to turn-on new production, so whilst supply remains constant in the short-term, demand expands. Basic knowledge of supply and demand -> prices increase further. * **For uranium producers this means:** * Revenue increases over the contracted terms -> at least double post-Fukushima contracted terms -> EV/EBITDA expands * NAV (critical valuation metric) expands as the higher prices reach a point where uranium producers have **economic incentive** to expand production * For 10 years Uranium producers have been trading at depressed P/NAV multiples because there was little confidence in asset-growth as the spot price/contracted price was **below the levels needed to justify asset expansion/new mines etc.** * Once contracts start rolling in above >$80/lb, waves of expansions/new mines will be announced triggering P/NAV multiple revaluation * As explored in the report, for a developer with lots of non-utilised assets this could trigger reratings of **>300%.** **Here's our model, pulled straight from the docs:** Interestingly, its development-stage companies that are expected to have the most to gain. I explore why in the report. https://preview.redd.it/y777kk530tag1.png?width=812&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd9f7ec6960c542de0db6452612e9d87a3436672 **So basically:** 1. Post-Fukushima contracts expire 2. Utilities forced to re-enter at higher prices as draw-down grows to levels that violate government regulation 3. This triggers a wave of demand 4. Contracted uranium price continues to drive higher 5. Revenues for uranium companies increase 6. Uranium companies finally expand production again 7. P/NAV rerating 8. Developers revaluation boom *(some could feasibly see \~300%+)* *And that's only looking at the 2026 market mechanics. That's not even factoring in the nuclear renaissance: AI data centres, SMRs, traditional reactor relaunching*. *I also examine this side of things in the doc.*