Author challenges positive gold sentiment by comparing inflation-adjusted long-run returns and 20-year rolling windows, concluding SPY has materially outperformed gold.
Unpriced research observations (excluded from Calls and Returns):
XAUUSD — AVOID The author argues that gold's strong two-year performance is recency bias and not indicative of longer-term results. Over 1969-to-present and rolling 20-year windows, gold's inflation-adjusted CAGR trailed SPY, and its worst 20-year stretch lost 76% of value. Gold is therefore not a suitable core long-term holding for retirement. Exact non-equity contract requires separate historical validation; no generic proxy.
Over those 20 years gold lost 76% of its value while SPY grew 12x.