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You all really thought GPUs from $5T+ companies like Nvidia or $300B+ Memory companies like Micron was THE bottleneck??
Think again.
This small ass $700m stock that nobody knew about here, worth less than a pre-product college dropout AI startup, will have Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google, Meta, and every single AI Hyperscaler grasping by the balls in 2026.
I'm actually serious. Why you might ask?
MAJORITY OF FUTURE CHIPS NEEDS photonics. Future Nvidia, Amazon Trainium, Microsoft ASIC, and all hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. Just look at GOOGLE TPU V7 EVERYONE LOVES. Completely photonics dependent for pods.
But YOU KNOW WHAT? TO build photonic components, you need InP substrates!!! Legit \~8-12% of TPU v7 cost are photonics that go to LITE/COHR.
But GUESS who happens to own \~30-35% of the InP substrate market???????????
\--------> This tiny ass $700m stock called AXTI. Actually insane.
It's legit a duopoly alongside another random $30B Japanese sumo wresteler called Sumitomo (which owns 30-35% too). But compared their Japanese friend, THEY SOURCE OWN 10+ MATERIAL SUPPLY CHAINS + REFINERIES THEMSELVES AND R WORTH 1/40th+ of the valuation lol.
There's like 3 other friends like JX but they're all extremely tiny relative to AXTI and its sumo friend but together they all make up like 70%+.
So the ENTIRE WESTERN AI BUILDOUT? HELD BY THE BALLS BY SOME WORTHLESS PENNY ASS STOCK.
Exaggeration right? Just go to another supplier like Sumo?
NO LOL, you remove 30-35% of the INP substrate supply from the market right now when demand is already 2-3x+ SUPPLY PRE-RAMP AND then U can't scale up any more TPUs. Microsoft ALONE WILL LIKELY TAKE UP DOUBLE DIGITS in INP substates and they're havent EVEN RAMPED lol (q4 2026).
So you THINK Hyperscalers can disverify with Broadcom, Coherent, Innolight, Lumentum, and other component makers?
THINK AGAIN.
GO DOWN THE SUPPLY CHAIN FROM LITE TO AVGO AND THEY ALL USE AXTI FOR INP SUBSTRATES CUZ theres pHYSICALLY NOT ENOUGH SUBSTRATES AND MATERIALS to MAKE LASERS.
People+hyperscalers might have thought lasers were the bottleneck BUT THEY DIDN'T GO didn't go deeper into the MATERIALS side of the supply chain, WHICH IS THE REASON WHY THEY CAN"T MAKE MORE LASER BEAMS like VIKTOR's E or Protoss Colossus Range Upgrades. AGAIN THIS IS NOT SOMETHING U CAN THROW MONEY AT TO DIVERSIFY,
THere's just physically not enough materials even if everyone scales to 6 inch inps until at least 2028.
So those GUYS ARE NOW BOTTLENECKED for 2026-2027, and hyperscalers will likely buy substrate supply themselves now so they dont delay their program for 2 years. So this crappy, worthless InP substrate commodity AXTI company previously used for telecom is now used for LIDAR, PHOTONICS, AND THE ENTIRE FUTURE AI Buildout.
You think a Lux Level 6 ULT Laser beam can come from other stuff other than INP? NOPE.
YOU THINK THERES ALTERANTIVES LIKE SILICON PHOTONICS? NOPe, IT STILL needs InP lasers.
YOU THINK US GOV and MICROSOFT CAN THROW MONEY AT THIS AND FUND SUPPLIERS?
NOPE. PHYSICAL MATERIALS CEILING is NOT SOMETHING money can spawn camp for at least the next a few years.
THERE's literally not enough supply, so I expect every single Mag7 company gonna try and buy out their supply and ur substate providers can go ahead and negotiate whatever they want like what's happening with memory.
Even spending 15 TIMES the existing INP SUBSTRATE COST IS INCREDIBLY CHEAP So their whole TPU program doesn't stall, not even joking.
BUT THERES NOT ENOUGH VESPENE GAS!
Moomoo Research, the Kpop Idols literally said InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage". AND EVEN if even if you use 50 minerals to produce more workers and SCVs/Drones, companies like Coherent will be "supply-constrained by InP", cannot produce enough lasers without the material substrate providers.
So how do you put a value on tiny ass $700m materials provider THAT'S AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF EVERY SINGLE AI COMPANY's FUTURE SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS? IDK.
Meta/Google for example WILL NOT ALLOW their MTAI program to stall for 2 years when they're spending $70B+ in capex because of some cheap $5M inp substrates, they would be happy to pay 50x the existing cost now even at $250m lol.
So it's impossible to kind value this company even if they have $50m backlog now, the same materials capacity later could be worth 10X current prices (eg. $500m).
Downside? 50% chance, China sends a tactical nuke and this goes to $0.
But if it goes to 0, it's taking the entire trillion dollar AI Buildout with It along with my calls. Google TPU using OCS with recalling? -> Anivia Wall. Nvidia GB200 using InP for scale out -> Anivia Wall.
AXTI is legit max rank level 20 Top Lane Anivia W.
I used to be a grieving Anvia main in Season 3 so for that reason I said fk it I had some money to blow so let's buy max OTM calls to later convert and acquire a small percentage of this company/indirect supply like RuneScape Lobster Hoarding. Did max OTM calls for max leverage on upside but just in case it goes to $0 didn't want to lose $1m+ in regular stock lol.
TLDR: FOUND THE SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE FOR AI GROWTH FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS WHICH IS SOME RANDOM $700M COMPANY, so I threw in some spare change into max OTM calls (nothing higher on option chain otherwise I'd do $100)
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NFI so don't follow along. Just sharing my own OTM call positions + thought process in case this becomes legendary like OPEN and returns 8000%+.