Hormuz Oil Flows Recover as Supply Fears Ease | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/28/2026

Summary

Horizons Middle East & Africa covers easing oil-supply fears as Hormuz flows recover, a potential Venezuelan exit from OPEC, and the build-up to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Guests discuss gold's rally and a broader commodity supercycle, plus Asian currency and bond-market moves after Bank of Korea hikes and weak Japanese auctions. Hawkish Kansas City Fed comments and OCBC's cautious Fed/rates view highlight policy uncertainty, while Zambia's stronger kwacha supports lower inflation.

• Goldman estimates Gulf exports through Hormuz recovered to 15-16 million barrels per day, still below pre-war levels but easing supply fears.
• Venezuela weighs an OPEC exit, and membership losses may reduce OPEC's market influence.
• Jackson Hole awaits Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid says rates may still need to go higher.
• OCBC's Selina Ling expects a hawkish tone but little action, warning a hike could be a policy mistake by 2027.
• Guy Wolfe argues gold is supported by fiat concerns and sees a new commodity supercycle centered on copper and silver.
• Asian equities rise with Japan/Taiwan leading and Korea lagging; the Korean won strengthens while JGBs weaken.
• Zambia's stronger kwacha feeds into August inflation falling to 6.2%, the lowest since 2018.