Australia Grapples with Demographic Shifts: Falling Fertility, Immigration

Summary

Australia's record-low fertility rate and aging population create demographic headwinds, with immigration seen as essential to sustaining the workforce. Roger Wilkins of the Melbourne Institute discusses structural shifts in demand toward healthcare and aged care, and warns that limiting migration would erode living standards and economic growth over the longer term.

• Australia's fertility rate fell to a record low 1.48 births per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement level.
• Prime Minister Albanese has resisted deeper cuts to immigration despite rising anti-immigration sentiment.
• Professor Wilkins argues that maintaining a healthy immigration program is critical for Australia's long-term economic interests.
• Aging demographics will structurally boost demand for healthcare and aged care services, reshaping the labor market.
• Absent significant immigration, the shrinking working-age share will depress living standards and growth prospects.
• Large one-off cash payments at birth showed some effectiveness in lifting fertility, but policy solutions remain challenging overall.