O BANCO CENTRAL ESTÁ FICANDO FLEXÍVEL DEMAIS PARA CORTAR JUROS? | Risco Brasil #44

Summary

Three ex‑central bank directors dissect the COPOM’s controversial decision to cut Selic to 14.25% while its own inflation projections rise. They argue the cut was badly communicated, damages credibility, and that the underlying fiscal problems and a higher neutral rate make Brazil’s trajectory unsustainable. The discussion also covers the 2026 election outlook, parallels with the 2015 crisis, the Fed’s tightening bias, and the AI investment surge.

• COPOM cut Selic to 14.25% despite raising inflation forecasts and extending the policy horizon to 2028; markets reacted negatively.
• Guests believe the decision was inconsistent with inflation targeting and eroded Central Bank credibility.
• The neutral real interest rate in Brazil is likely around 8%, much higher than the BC’s estimates, implying current rates are not restrictive enough.
• The fiscal trajectory is deemed unsustainable — rising debt and a lack of adjustment create a high risk of a crisis similar to 2015.
• Political polls show Lula as 2026 front‑runner; a re‑election without fiscal reform would likely trigger a sharp sell‑off in Brazilian assets.
• The US Federal Reserve’s shift toward possible rate hikes adds external pressure on Brazil’s currency and interest rates.
• AI investment is seen as a transformative productivity force, but current spending levels may outpace near‑term returns, creating volatility in US equities.