The Most Reliable Semiconductor Data Right Now

[Highlight] The Most Reliable Semiconductor Data Right Now | Park Se-ik Senior Managing Director & Chesley Investment Advisory [Morning Brief / 26.08.03.Mon]

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 03, 2026 at 01:53 | 40:44 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Speakers

Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Choi Ho — Vice President

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho analyze the semiconductor cycle using Korea's real-time export data and DRAM spot prices as the most reliable indicators, while dissecting the recent leveraged hedge fund blowup. They compare the current cycle to 2017-18, warn against leveraged products, and flag a potential software sector rotation with Palantir earnings as a key catalyst. The discussion also covers US Treasury refunding as a yield inflection point and coordinated US-Japan yen intervention.

Korean semiconductor exports grew for a sixth consecutive month in July with rising D-RAM and NAND prices, confirming the upcycle remains intact
Daily DRAM spot prices on D-RAM Exchange offer a faster inventory signal than quarterly financial reports
The Situation Awareness hedge fund collapse involved extreme option leverage on Micron, SanDisk, and TSMC, with lingering forced unwinding
2x and 3x leveraged ETNs on Korean stocks are labeled as destructive casino products that retail investors should avoid entirely
Historical 2017-18 cycle comparison shows SK Hynix peaked about 4 months before earnings, implying potential for further highs, but Park cautions that long-dated earnings forecasts are unreliable
Software rotation is emerging with Microsoft rebounding and Adobe experiencing a short squeeze; Palantir earnings are the next confirmation signal
The August 5 US Treasury quarterly refunding could mark an inflection point for 10-year yields to turn lower
US Treasury reportedly intervened to support the yen for the first time since 2008, signaling a potential cap on further yen weakness

Ideas

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 5:19

Avoid leveraged ETNs, they destroy capital

Leveraged products such as 2x and 3x ETNs on Korean stocks are dangerous casino-style instruments that destroy capital. Using SK Hynix leveraged products as an example, both the 2x long and inverse products have blown up 50% from their listing prices. These products encourage gambling behavior rather than productive investing, and inexperienced investors entering the market for economic freedom are being lured into what is essentially a gambling arena. Investors should avoid all such leveraged structured products.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 19:35

US-Japan coordination caps yen weakness

The Japanese yen has seen coordinated support, with the US Treasury reportedly intervening in currency markets for the first time since October 2008. The yen strengthened 3.9% in one week to 157.43 per dollar after briefly exceeding 160. The US has an incentive to prevent excessive yen weakness because Japanese sales of US Treasuries to defend the yen would push up US yields, creating a burden for the US Treasury. This coordinated stance suggests yen weakness may be capped, marking a potential regime change in USD/JPY.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 22:15

Aug 5 refunding may turn yields lower

The US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement on August 5 could serve as an inflection point where the 10-year Treasury yield starts to decline. The timing aligns with Treasury supply dynamics, and with the 10-year yield currently elevated near critical thresholds, this event could catalyze a turn lower in long-end yields. The Trump administration's tariff policy also appears constrained by high yields, adding political pressure for yields to ease.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 22:34

Software rotation emerging, Palantir is catalyst

Portfolio rotation from semiconductor infrastructure toward software is emerging as a key market shift. Microsoft has already shown a sharp rebound, and Adobe experienced a short squeeze as long-short funds that were short software names got caught. Palantir's upcoming earnings serve as a critical catalyst to confirm whether this software rotation has legs. The changing portfolio dynamics make software earnings an important watchpoint for market direction.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 25:25

Korean chip exports show cycle intact

Korea's July semiconductor export data from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy shows continued strength: D-RAM and NAND fixed prices are rising, SSD/eSSD demand is growing, and this marks the sixth consecutive month of export growth. The Q3 start is smooth, and as long as semiconductor export value keeps climbing and price increases are maintained, the semiconductor stock recovery can continue. Current data alone suggests the upcycle is intact.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 25:25

Korean chip exports show cycle intact

Historical semiconductor cycle analysis from DS Research shows that in the 2017-2018 supercycle, SK Hynix made multiple new highs with its final peak about 4 months before the earnings peak in Q3 2018. Applying the same formula to the current cycle, with consensus earnings peak forecast for Q4 2027, SK Hynix retains room to attempt new highs through at least H1 2027. Memory maker earnings are projected to keep growing through 2027, and no supply glut signals have been detected yet. However, Park Se-ik warns that the Q4 2027 earnings peak assumption itself is risky, as no analyst in 2018 correctly predicted the 2019 earnings decline.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 40:22

DRAM spot prices are leading inventory signal

Daily DRAM spot prices available on D-RAM Exchange serve as a faster leading indicator for semiconductor inventory conditions than quarterly financial reports or official inventory data. Monitoring these spot price trends can provide an early signal of when inventory starts accumulating, which would mark a critical turning point for semiconductor stocks. This daily data, combined with the 10-day export data, is the best real-time monitoring approach.

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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published August 03, 2026, features Park Se-ik discussing Korean stock leveraged products (2x/3x ETNs), Japanese Yen (JPY/USD), US 10-Year Treasury Note yield, PLTR, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, DRAM spot prices (D-RAM Exchange). 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik · Tickers: Korean stock leveraged products (2x/3x ETNs), Japanese Yen (JPY/USD), US 10-Year Treasury Note yield, PLTR, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, DRAM spot prices (D-RAM Exchange)