Ukraine Gains Ground as Putin Faces Pressure

Summary

London Business School Dean Sergei Guriev analyzes the state of Russia's war in Ukraine, highlighting the growing impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and civilian morale. He details severe demographic damage to Russia from casualties and emigration, and notes that drone warfare is transforming military strategy. The discussion focuses on political and economic consequences rather than investable assets.

• Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and e-commerce warehouses are bringing the war home to ordinary Russians.
• Russia has lost 1.4-1.5 million killed/wounded, plus 1 million skilled emigrants, causing labor shortages.
• Gasoline production in Russia is down by a third, creating supply pressures.
• Putin's regime is brittle but his leadership stability is uncertain.
• Drone technology is changing the frontline and enabling deep strikes, a shock to global militaries.
• No tradable securities or investment ideas are discussed.