There'll Likely Be a Government Shutdown In September Says Short

Summary

Marc Short discusses the likelihood of a government shutdown by September 30 due to narrow congressional margins and stalled appropriations. He notes the president's trade policies are hurting farmers with higher fertilizer costs and closed export markets, which could damage Republican prospects in the midterms. He also sees bleak prospects for supplemental defense funding and comments on the passing of Senator Lindsey Graham and shifting Republican foreign policy wings.

• Government shutdown likely by September 30 unless appropriations or a stopgap pass.
• Narrow margins in House and Senate make legislation increasingly difficult.
• President's trade agenda blamed for hurting American farmers via higher costs and lost export markets.
• Midterm outlook challenging for Republicans, partly due to trade policy backlash in heartland.
• Supplemental defense funding prospects described as bleak.
• Passing of Lindsey Graham seen as loss for hawkish wing; isolationist wing ascendant in GOP.