Ep. 23 - Everyone Leaves Google, Elon Forecasts 1T ARR, Reflecting On GPT-5 | Jon from Asianometry

Summary

Jon from Asianometry joins SemiAnalysis Weekly to discuss GPT-5's mixed record, US-China transceiver bans, Google's talent exodus and monopoly positioning, and the acute memory shortage. Doug O'Laughlin argues Google's stock will do well near-term despite innovation losses, while Jon highlights memory as the critical supply-chain bottleneck.

• GPT-5 was underwhelming but version 5.6 and the rumored GPT-6 show strong improvement.
• The US ban on Chinese transceivers may backfire because China controls the entire optics supply chain.
• Jeff Dean, the Gemini leads, and other key researchers are leaving Google, raising doubts about its AI future.
• Doug calls Google a Bell Labs-like monopolist that will benefit near-term but may be disrupted later.
• Elon Musk pulls his $1 trillion revenue target to 2030, with memory supply seen as the critical enabler.
• Memory components are in severe shortage, with Apple unable to assemble devices due to lack of DRAM/NAND.
• Custom software development with AI coding tools is highlighted as a personal productivity trend, not a market call.