Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, less than expected
Speakers
Andrew Ross Sorkin — Anchor, Squawk Box
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Summary
- January CPI rose 2.4% annually, coming in below the expected 2.5%, driven significantly by a cooler-than-expected Owner's Equivalent Rent (0.2%) and falling energy prices.
- Treasury yields dropped immediately on the print (10-year to 4.07%, 2-year to 3.41%), validating the "strong economy, low yields" thesis and providing relief to risk assets.
- Real earnings rose 0.5%, and the feared "tariff pass-through" in goods inflation did not materialize, suggesting the Fed has leeway to manage policy without aggressive tightening.
Trade Ideas
The goods sector did not show the "pass along" of price increases that were expected from tariffs. If tariff-related inflation is not materializing ("maybe we've been there, done that"), it removes a key inflationary tail risk for the economy. WATCH the goods/commodities complex; continued softness here is bullish for the broader disinflation narrative. Supply chain shocks or delayed tariff impacts.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
CPI came in at 2.4% (vs 2.5% consensus) with shelter inflation (OER) surprisingly low at 0.2%. The 10-year yield fell from 4.10% to 4.07% immediately. The data confirms a "tame CPI," removing the fear of sticky inflation. Lower inflation expectations allow the Fed to keep rates lower or cut, which mechanically pushes bond yields down and bond prices up. LONG Treasuries as the macro data supports the "low yield" narrative championed by Treasury officials. Inflation re-accelerates in future months; data revisions.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
Stocks were negative prior to the release but the number was "very tame." Real earnings also rose 0.5%. The absence of an "upside surprise" (which plagued previous Januaries) combined with falling yields reduces the discount rate for equities and supports valuations. A resilient consumer (real earnings up) prevents a recessionary bear case. LONG equities as the "soft landing" probability increases. Economic growth slows significantly (recession) rather than just inflation cooling.
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This CNBC video, published February 13, 2026, features Andrew Ross Sorkin discussing DBC, TLT, SPY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Andrew Ross Sorkin · Tickers: DBC, TLT, SPY